Debunked means "expose the falseness or hollowness of (a myth, idea, or belief).“
Your title is essentially saying, " I have proven DPK false” which is completely against your argument. So I’m with your commenters on this one, change the title please.
Next up, your proof assumes that drop chance ?% means DPK. You have to prove that first. Who runs tosbase? How did they gather this information? Certainly it might be DPK, but it might also be just missing information. It’s also as likely that the droprates are all DPK-based, and the tosbase numbers are just wrong.
It’s an unproven point until someone presents the evidence.
Next, you conclude that this punishes effort. But actually, you could read the data the other way. If an item drops after 100 kills, the person who killed 99 had 99% chance of getting it.
So yes, it does reward effort more than pure chance.
Chance applies to everyone, not just the individual. In your scenario, the person who did the 100th kill had a 1% chance of getting the item. By chance, he did. He didn’t know he was getting the 100th kill, you didn’t know he was getting the 100th kill. That’s how luck and probability works. Unless of course there’s a way to see that counter and time your assault.
If anything, proving the DPK system works on channel-based kill counters opens up these issues:
A. If someone can track the total kills in a channel, they can get the drop 100% of the time (Chance being voided because they now know).
Should we ban addons that aggregate kill info?
B. A DPK of 30,000 (commonly hypothesized value for White Boater) would mean that a channel has to kill 30,000 mobs to generate an item. Does this reset on maintenance? What if a channel dies?
B. Can we prove this is per channel per mob? What if it’s just per mob, scattered out across the whole server? What if it’s across the servers as well?
All in all, a decent attempt. But it needs to be more scientific to be acceptable. Best way is to conduct experiments, and always assume you’re wrong instead of the other way around.