I can only say I did 7*3 runs rolling to the limit everytime no dagger. After a week of trying I have nothing to show. This trend continues on the 175 dungeon.
Most annoying part is that I could have bought it for the reroll price by now.
Dude you say is 5%, that you ran the dungeon 60 times and used the extra rolls for silver and got nothing. Friend you obviously never played RO, having to hunt that one card that never drops for you at a wooping 0.01% drop. To see a lucky go F guy come and get it after killing 2 monsters on the same map you been farming for a month.
I think im with the first poster on this: what the point of this thread?
I doubt Arde will raise so high, although itās price will always stay up due to it being needed for Karacha.
Archers (exept Rouges) change Arde/Karacha for a Mana-Mana eventually and some classes use two-handed weapons thus skipping the need of a dagger.
Some people could also prefer the Venom (say Corsairs thanks to itās chance of applying a really strong poison) although due to itās penalty do Plate armor itās argued if itās as good as a Karacha.
More tank sided builds will also side more towards getting an Otrava or Ledas shield instead of the daggers too.
Iām truly baffled by the amounts of immaturity in todayās online communityā¦
Honestly, who goes around calling peoples kids or whiners or whatever just for expressing their dissatisfaction.
The fact that some peoples even take the time to come here and call me a kid or whiner is at best hilarious.
Iām laughing so hard right now. Most peoples that replied in this thread didnāt even read half of what was being discussed here.
I shouldnāt be surprised since in all likelihood most of these peoples canāt even read past 2 lines or just take a single line inside a thread and take it completely out of context to than pretend they understand what was being discussed.
It seems that around 10% of the peoples that replied took the time to read what was being talk about and made some nice reply. For which Iām thankful.
Iām going to add a few thing about myself.
First Iām 34 year old.
I played iRO 10-11 years.
I had several level 99 Characters and 2 Level 99 Transcendent character.
I farmed cards for months with guild-mate and did lots of GvG.
But all the above is irrelevant. It mean nothing today. Nothing.
Peoples wonder why game keep failing, yet they canāt even sit for a second and think about the main issue. Online Communities as a whole as become very toxic. Itās a good thing I play with friends, otherwise those game would be meaningless.
You can just read the chat in-game and see all those racism, bashing, degrading shout that peoples make every 2 seconds to see the level of maturity in those game nowadays.
Then you can come to this forum to see more of this non-sense, in almost every single thread.
Anyway, I enjoy those type of game so maybe Iām some kind of masochist.
Back to grinding. Peace.
5 Likes
I got this on my 2nd dungeon run : - )
Thatās very nice, one of my friend got a third one today and gave it to me. Iām still trying to get one myself but well Iām way past that dungeon level.
In any case, most of my friends got it in about that 2-5 runs of the dungeon 
Donāt you think running the same dungeon only 2/3 times a day per character VS Killing 500-1000(or more) mobs a day is abit different though?
Sounds different, it is not though. Basically you have 0.15% chance per day to get it. While the card drop in RO depended on how many monster you killed per day. All this is assume possibility as nothing is guaranteed.
9 talts again today. 66 attemps, 0 daggers.
Starting to taste like some sort of bug. With the formula given in the thread I could have already gotten one with 96.61% chance.
1 Like
Well the assumption was a 5% fixed droprate. It may not be fixed (hope not) or it may be lower than 5%. Or you might be that unlucky 3.39%.
Got it on my 3rd run today.
So faking ez
git gud fam
This. 5% is an estimated chance from CBT. We also know that some drop chances were changed since then:
Dungeon drops might have been affected as well. Actually it would be proper to assume that all drop chances were reduced and there is nothing strange about that because they might have had elevated rates at CBT.
I got 2 for 23 runsā¦ u must be a bad sperm
I feel bad for the OPā¦
got it on my 1st run without even rerolling the caseā¦
ā¦ Just 1 hour after looting the Brandish recipe
Some days you are lucky, even if you werenāt expecting anything, and you will be unlucky the rest of the year, go figure. Keep it up man, luck always turn sidesā¦
just keep going and buy a karacha dagger wich is way better than arde dagger
OP has 63 talt gg got burned son
Everyone should just get a free dagger after x attempts = even more boss rushers pissing off people in party search = complaints
People never happy.
Life isnāt fair get used to it
The probability of getting an Arde Dagger on your next run after 62 failed attempts: 5%
The probability of NOT getting an Arde Dagger within 63 runs: 4%
The probability of getting at least one Arde Dagger in 63 runs: 96%
The expected/average number of runs it takes to get one Arde Dagger: 20
But you only get close to 1 out of 20 across a significant number of runs. Iām talking hundreds of thousands, if not millions.
If all players across all servers opened 1,000,000 boxes (including rerolls), you would expect roughly 50,000 daggers among them, give or take.
2 Likes
If all players across all servers opened 1,000,000 boxes (including rerolls), you would expect roughly 50,000 daggers among them, give or take.
jajajajajajajaja
Well. Technically yes this is statistically true. If 100 people ran the dungeon 60 times each, on average 95 of them would have gotten a dagger. However,
.[quote=ātoplein, post:92, topic:185577ā]
With the formula given in the thread I could have already gotten one with 96.61% chance.
[/quote]
No. Nonononononono. This is only true in those RNG systems like in Dota 2, which increase the chance the more times you fail. [quote=āUnLuckyCat, post:100, topic:185577ā]
The probability of getting an Arde Dagger on your next run after 62 failed attempts: 5%
[/quote]
The game doesnāt care that your previous 62 rolls were fails. All it knows is that the drop rate is 5%, and if you donāt hit that 5%, then gg.
Well not exactly, I mean, if you got boosted chances each failure your success rate would be higher than 96% across ~60 runs.
Looking back on previous runs, there was always a certain chance to get the drop. Sure, each individual one is 5% every time, but to be standing there after so many total runs with nothing to show for it is statistically unlikely.
After your first run, you had a 5% chance to get one. Obviously, if you didnāt get one, you have a 0% chance of having one at this moment. And a 5% chance of getting one next time.
But across two runs, you had a 9.8% chance of getting one the first time but not the second (5% * 95%), one the second time but not the first time (95% * 5%), or both times (5% * 5%). Thereās a 90.3% chance to not have any by now. Of course, given that you currently have none, you have a 100% chance to have none, and a 5% chance to get one on your third run.
And so on. Itās the difference between imagining someone, right now, immediately opening 60 boxes at the same time, and opening them one at a time. The chance to have at least one dagger afterwards is the same for both cases.
Yeah thatās fine. The problem with the statistics in this case is that 100% of people whoāve rolled 90 times do not have a dagger. Because the people who do get one stop rolling, thus distorting the sample.