Don’t you think running the same dungeon only 2/3 times a day per character VS Killing 500-1000(or more) mobs a day is abit different though?
Sounds different, it is not though. Basically you have 0.15% chance per day to get it. While the card drop in RO depended on how many monster you killed per day. All this is assume possibility as nothing is guaranteed.
9 talts again today. 66 attemps, 0 daggers.
Starting to taste like some sort of bug. With the formula given in the thread I could have already gotten one with 96.61% chance.
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Well the assumption was a 5% fixed droprate. It may not be fixed (hope not) or it may be lower than 5%. Or you might be that unlucky 3.39%.
Got it on my 3rd run today.
So faking ez
git gud fam
This. 5% is an estimated chance from CBT. We also know that some drop chances were changed since then:
Dungeon drops might have been affected as well. Actually it would be proper to assume that all drop chances were reduced and there is nothing strange about that because they might have had elevated rates at CBT.
I got 2 for 23 runs… u must be a bad sperm
I feel bad for the OP…
got it on my 1st run without even rerolling the case…
… Just 1 hour after looting the Brandish recipe
Some days you are lucky, even if you weren’t expecting anything, and you will be unlucky the rest of the year, go figure. Keep it up man, luck always turn sides…
just keep going and buy a karacha dagger wich is way better than arde dagger
OP has 63 talt gg got burned son
Everyone should just get a free dagger after x attempts = even more boss rushers pissing off people in party search = complaints
People never happy.
Life isn’t fair get used to it
The probability of getting an Arde Dagger on your next run after 62 failed attempts: 5%
The probability of NOT getting an Arde Dagger within 63 runs: 4%
The probability of getting at least one Arde Dagger in 63 runs: 96%
The expected/average number of runs it takes to get one Arde Dagger: 20
But you only get close to 1 out of 20 across a significant number of runs. I’m talking hundreds of thousands, if not millions.
If all players across all servers opened 1,000,000 boxes (including rerolls), you would expect roughly 50,000 daggers among them, give or take.
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If all players across all servers opened 1,000,000 boxes (including rerolls), you would expect roughly 50,000 daggers among them, give or take.
jajajajajajajaja
Well. Technically yes this is statistically true. If 100 people ran the dungeon 60 times each, on average 95 of them would have gotten a dagger. However,
.[quote=“toplein, post:92, topic:185577”]
With the formula given in the thread I could have already gotten one with 96.61% chance.
[/quote]
No. Nonononononono. This is only true in those RNG systems like in Dota 2, which increase the chance the more times you fail. [quote=“UnLuckyCat, post:100, topic:185577”]
The probability of getting an Arde Dagger on your next run after 62 failed attempts: 5%
[/quote]
The game doesn’t care that your previous 62 rolls were fails. All it knows is that the drop rate is 5%, and if you don’t hit that 5%, then gg.
Well not exactly, I mean, if you got boosted chances each failure your success rate would be higher than 96% across ~60 runs.
Looking back on previous runs, there was always a certain chance to get the drop. Sure, each individual one is 5% every time, but to be standing there after so many total runs with nothing to show for it is statistically unlikely.
After your first run, you had a 5% chance to get one. Obviously, if you didn’t get one, you have a 0% chance of having one at this moment. And a 5% chance of getting one next time.
But across two runs, you had a 9.8% chance of getting one the first time but not the second (5% * 95%), one the second time but not the first time (95% * 5%), or both times (5% * 5%). There’s a 90.3% chance to not have any by now. Of course, given that you currently have none, you have a 100% chance to have none, and a 5% chance to get one on your third run.
And so on. It’s the difference between imagining someone, right now, immediately opening 60 boxes at the same time, and opening them one at a time. The chance to have at least one dagger afterwards is the same for both cases.
Yeah that’s fine. The problem with the statistics in this case is that 100% of people who’ve rolled 90 times do not have a dagger. Because the people who do get one stop rolling, thus distorting the sample.
Yep, I wanted a law that takes into account the past failures, but seems like there is none…
So it’s always 5%. 5%. 5%. Boring maths 
(If the probability is still 5%.)
Hmm…
Lvl 90 Dungeon
Necroventer Card (15%)
Talt (Almost 100%)
Opal (1%)
Zircon (0.5%)
Arde Dagger (5%)
Recipe - Beetleback (10%)
so far i got…
5x Necroventer card
35x talt
1x Opal
1x Zircon
4x Beetleback recipe
0x Arde Dagger
I must be on the bad side of RNG 
[quote=“Nekorin, post:105, topic:185577”]
I must be on the bad side of RNG
[/quote]if and only if those chances are correct (which they arent because they are based on players’ subjective reports during closed tests and not on datamining). And IMC will never release such info to public unless they decide to make a database site of their own.
True, the drop% doesn’t really match. But nevertheless I’ll just continue to farm for it, or if I happen to save enough silvers to purchase 1.
Because reasons >.>
2 characters, 6 runs a day + atleast 2 rolls.
3 daggers 1 week.
83 attempts so far. 6 recipes, 63 talts, 14 cards and 0 daggers.
I’d definitely recommend other people just to buy the dagger… This is getting insane. But just because science must be done, I’m gonna farm it till the end of world so maybe I can someday bring some numbers here.