This is assuming Probabilities of 51% count on each try you hit the anvil, out of 3, that’d be 1/8 = 0,125%. Not sure if this is the case on ToS. Need more information.
Hmm that looks wrong unless the item explodes in one chance.
Got a programmer to build me a simulation since math guy said he could do it in excel but it’d be shitty.
[details=Click here for code] Mr.V.Light:
package javaapplication2;
public class JavaApplication2 {
public static void main(String[] args) {
int upgradeLevel = 5;
int chance = 88;
double x = 0.0;
int success = 0;
for (int sim = 10000; sim > 0; sim–){
for (int potential = 7; potential > 0; ){
x = Math.random()*100;
chance = 0;
if (upgradeLevel > 5) chance = 12;
if (upgradeLevel > 6) chance = 22;
if (upgradeLevel > 7) chance = 32;
if (upgradeLevel > 8) chance = 41;
if (upgradeLevel > 9) chance = 49;
if (x > chance) {
upgradeLevel++;
} else{
upgradeLevel–;
potential–;
}
if (upgradeLevel > 22){ //fake item break to exit loop
success++;
upgradeLevel = 5;
potential = 0;
}
}
}
System.out.println(success);
}
}
[/details]It’s about 750/10,000 to successfully make that weapon with 4 potential left over (2 used for gems). 7.5% chance or 1 in 15 weapons to pull it off. The wealth cost would be pretty high but someone else can do the math for that. Probably under 40mil? Which means it’s obtainable.
So the verdict is the guy potentially isn’t hacking if he’s from a top guild and farms like crazy. Or blew 1000 bucks on tokens.
2 Likes
the game should have had a hard upgrade cap from the very begining, people thought it was 15 on the beta, i hope they make this decision sooner than later becasue this is the major thing stoping me from playing. (after reading last improves on fps thing)
1 Like
The way you calculate it would be okay if it were like in RO, where the item gets destroyed after failing, because that means that you have to get all the successes consecutively. The fact that the item doesnt get destroyed, but rather loses potential is a big difference. To calculate the probability of an item reaching a certain upgrade level, you can calculate the 1- chance of its durability reaching 0 before said level.
To do this, you have to sum every single outcome. So i.e. whats the chance of a +10 item getting to +12 with 2 potential left?.
It is 1 - (the chance of it failing thrice + the chance of a success and then failing twice + chance of failure then sucess then failure).
With higher numbers the ammount of calculations becomes very high, thats why a simulator is easier.
Anyway, the chance for a +23 item is low, but it is way higher than what was said.
Edit: Actually, the best way would be to do a routine to calculate the summatory of all the binomials, where successes < the levels you want the item to be upgraded (from +10 to +15 = 5 levels) and failures = the potential left on the item.
Already did some in excel, if its not wrong, the chance of getting a 7 potential left item from +10 to +23 is around 15%
1 Like
Yeah I fixed it two posts above… I had a programmer build a simulator for me. We came up with 1 in 15 weapons can end up like his. Thanks for pointing out the original derp. Please check the source code it’s posted with it.
There was a way to no fail enhance to +15
But that’s patched now
LOL let me guess, never took stats? Go read a book
Please enlighten me how stats pertains to this?
Go read a book
/goreadabook
Here let me give you a hint, google “Probability”
Sorry, directing other people to read a stats book or google probability isn’t proving your points of statistics playing a role. If you have read it please feel free to explain how it affects the enhancing probabilities.
LOL let me guess, never took “proving a point?” Read a book.
-
read the posts above regarding probability. Never learned how to do yoir own research before asking to be fed answers through a straw? Ok kid
-
let me spoon feed you the answer. Its ok, i understand that youre lightweight autistic
First there is no “placebo” effect with stats. Say youre flipping a fair coin. Whats the probability in getting heads? 50%. Whats the probability of getting another heads? 50%.
You might think its 50% to get 2 heads because you dont understand stats, but if you read a goddamn book or learned to google, the provability of gettig 2 heads straight is 25%. Now apply it to wep enhancement and youll see that its next to impossible to get +15 with 6 potential left -
i cant tell if youre dyslexic, because i dont know why youre trying to ask me to prove a point when i had already mentioned there was an exploit allowing people to enhance to +15
I’m an weapon/armor enhancer myself, hence i’m on the top 10 adventure journal ranking on Klaipeda. My experience on this matter says that there’s something fishy on this upgrading system. If the 1/15 weapons was correct, i should make it to +20 on several weapons/armors , and that’s not the case.
I have upgraded to +10 around 35 weapons and armors and the only pattern i really noticed is whenever i try to enhance an item on a crowded city, ill keep failing twice, thrice, even four times straight.
I’m afraid, we are missing something in the upgrading formula we’re not aware of.
In my case it is always 51% cuz getting from +11 to +12 is 51%. I’m treating each upgrade instance as a separate instance altogether.
From what I read from what you typed, as long as it is a really low number means it is impossible to achieve? So you are also implying that in RL that people who won lotto/powerball are also not playing that game in a legit way as it is near impossible to get a full set of numbers in 1 try?
Probability is something which I think should be taken with a pinch of talt. In your case you probably need numerous runs of talts to lessen the impact/negativity you have due to the extremely low numbers your stats give.
If you keep lumping all the instances together to a +25 in 1 try then yes the probability is very very low, but it is just a probability. Even if the numbers are so low, there are still people who can get it in 1 try, or within 10 tries or 100 tries.
From all your ‘intellectual’ personal flaming, and oh my god, please, that primary school probability that you want to apply to a 2016 MMORPG game, which, no matter how bad the coding IMC has, obviously does not go that way so simply, conclusion is:
Your argument is invalid.
51% is just from a sample size probability, it does not mean it surely applies to each independent event. There are some other factors that many are not sure that applies to enhancement success. Exploits rampantly uses channel crashing just to get the potential back, not tweaking the code for enhance success.
Just because you mentioned it does not mean you proved a point. Just blind accusation.
’ There was an exploit allowing people to enhance to +15, however it’s patched now’
[no source]
[no justification said exploit was true or not]
[no evidence of said culprit utilizing said exploit]
And you wonder why people don’t take you seriously.
1 Like
Can we see other character’s weapon and equipment in game !?
All these people defending a hook64 user is amazing. If the GMs just check the log of the weapon, they will see that it rolled back several times after a fail enchant.
Well it’s not exactly a great chance. That weapon has more potential then you’re probably used to dealing with. And getting a weapon upgraded that high only happened 750 times out of 10,000. That’s only a 7.5% chance ever to get that good.
Please punch the program into java and see how it works yourself if you like. I tried to take out as much of the html that got into it so you can double check the source code easier if you like. Refer to the original code if you think I may have cleaned it improperly.
[details=Summary]package javaapplication2;
public class JavaApplication2 {
public static void main(String[] args) {
int upgradeLevel = 5;
int chance = 88;
double x = 0.0;
int success = 0;
for (int sim = 10000; sim > 0; sim–){
for (int potential = 9; potential > 0; ){
x = Math.random()*100;
chance = 0;
if (upgradeLevel > 5) chance = 12;
if (upgradeLevel > 6) chance = 22;
if (upgradeLevel > 7) chance = 32;
if (upgradeLevel > 8) chance = 41;
if (upgradeLevel > 9) chance = 49;
if (x > chance) {
upgradeLevel++;
} else{
upgradeLevel–;
potential–;
}
if (upgradeLevel > 22){ //fake item break to exit loop
success++;
upgradeLevel = 5;
potential = 0;
}
}
}
System.out.println(success);
}
}
[/details]
The simulation was also running quickly. So if you want a more accurate result you could probably add a 0 or two to the number of times the simulation was run. I didn’t run it myself I had programmer guy do it cause I didn’t feel like installing a compiler. He said it took about the blink of an eye to run the 10,000 simulations. Which math guy preferred since he said excel starts chugging much earlier when you run simulations the way he was thinking of setting it up.
Hook64 users are under protection by gm. This is why there hasnt been any gm bothering for copy paste responses in this section. Hue
2 Likes
“OurGuildSpentManyMonthsFarmingAllOurLegit+275BattleBracelets.jpeg”
LOL im done. Please google up “probability” or read a book
Ah I see, you’re one of those people too. No wonder. Or you’re retarded, I can’t tell.
No, it’s hard coded in LOL wtf are you talking about. Sample size? Get that bullshit out of here. How wrong can you be? You’re trying to whiteknight but are failing miserably (like most whiteknights). No, im not gonna spoonfeed the proof to you.
Hint: decompile the source and ctrl f “anvil”. Think thats enough spoonfeeding for today
Nobody is tweaking code or anything. A number is seeded (most likely server time) and a number is generated. It’s not hard to use a conditional statement to check if the generated number is greater or less than the given hard coded probability. Can you talk more from your ass? There is an exploit that takes into account how the game checks for successes and failures (which was patched)
Go google “conditional statements and generating numbers” or go pick up a book. I heard they’re good for you.