Pretty sure @FlanFlan has better things to do than entertain the ToS forums.
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Only thing is, having 2 spawn points or not, getting 2 gems in less than 400 kills soon as server started(note that OP said after maint all the kill count gets flushed and start a new which makes in that channel only 400 were killed) while I was definitely alone makes the DPK theory invalid.
Which can only end up with game revolves around RNG and might or might not have DPK system on top of it to boost rare drops
It may also just be a mix of DPK on semi rare things while the rarest things are just RNG.
I’m leaning towards whichever theory that does not complicate things too much because there is also no reason the developers would spend extra time just to implement a more complicated system. Having 1 or 2 generic ways to generate drops would make more sense to me.
I did some testing on hanamings last night in a channel with 0 others and I was getting aras recipe from every 200 to 240 kills (testing was killing nonstop to get 5 recipes). So IF there’s a DPK it may be a range thing as well.
#Here:
http://puu.sh/pLBt0/e3bce55e92.png
Ten million drops. You won’t see 10 million drops in the entire life of this game from server open to server close.
It took my code 24 minutes to finish processing this due to the loop needing to continuously run until 10 million drops happened.
Perhaps a more realistic sample is 100 drops:
http://puu.sh/pLBAB/322aee6ac4.png
#50 drops:
http://puu.sh/pLBDI/c66395e924.png
#25 drops:
http://puu.sh/pLBED/30852bc98c.png
#10 drops:
http://puu.sh/pLBFq/568104dd14.png
#5 drops:
http://puu.sh/pLBGA/a0b15170a4.png
It’s worth noting that, aside from the 5 drops (it’s not a large enough sample size), the average remains between 9-10k roughly. That is the important part of this math. Despite a few unlucky or lucky players, people are OVERALL rewarded for their efforts in around 9-10k kills.
That makes this a much better system than DPK.
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There can also be a progressive drop rate system where when reaching certain threshold, the drop rate of an item would increase from every kill that does not drop it and then reset once it’s dropped. (This is to balance out the drop rate of very rare stuff)
I’m just throwing out ideas here now. Not saying that’s what’s being used but that kind of system is pretty common in some games.
Here is some data to back up DPK theory
- I choosed Mark Tunic as sample. Mark Tunic is rare drop from Black Maize with “?%” drop chance.
- Addons were used for the research: “Item Drops”, “Monster Tracker”, “cwFarmed”, “LKChannel”
- Three experiments were made: Experiment #1 - empty channel in during one session. Experiment #2 - channel with people. Experiment #3 - prediction of drop Mark Tunic on empty channel
Experiment #1
Experiment #1 was made in 5 sessions:
Session 1
Session 2
Session 3
Session 4
SS3. Kill #1854. Silver mob (you can see amount of silver droped). He droped tunic, sound was not produced tho. I can't say if drop from silver/golden mob do reset channel's kill count or do not. Need more tests with silver/golden mobs
Session 5
As you can see there is definite range of kills before tunic droped. Except silver mob
Regarding my data for Mark Tunic: Minimum = 96. Maximum = 109
Experiment #2
You can see 4 people are on channel. One of them is Masaya. I asked Masaya to kill Black Maizes as much as she/he can. Masaya made 138 kills and found 1 Mark Tunic
As you can see kill count is not individual but global (i guess per channel)
Experiment #3
I picked empty channel than reseted channel’s kill count (by finding mark tunic). After that I made 95 kills and call Masaya to make 1-13 kills more
Video #1
Experiment was repeated second time
Video #2
I want to thank Masaya for assistance!
Updated info in post below
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people were saying they found their Vubbe Blood after around 100/130 kills so it might be around there too.
Though good luck with that horrendous spawn time.
Im Guessing Mithril would be in the thousands
@jjjsong @atari DPK is no longer a theory. We have video evidence of a thaum getting a DPK item, killing until the kill count was correct, using swell body on the next mob, and then getting a double DPK item drop on the next kill. There is NO proof that gems are DPK items, but for known DPK items the proof is clear cut. Under any other system, it would be impossible to know when a rare was going to drop, but DPK makes it possible.
We can maybe say they use this DPK system on regular drops including semi rare drops. However it’s very possible on the really rare items (like monster gems) it’s just RNG. So far the testings were on white / blue items or recipes.
It’s also possible that the rate to drop an item increases substantially after a certain amount of kills with no drops. This would be almost just like DPK except there’s a possibility of getting the item “within” the “set kill counts” still.
I.E. for something that drops at 1% chance, after 100 kills of no drops, the rate increases to 50% (or 100% for DPK system). However, there’s still a chance to get the item within the next 100 kills because each one of them still hold 0.5% drop chance.
Basically these testing and observations can spawn many theories and DPK is just one of them.
Exactly this.
There is no concrete proof of DPK in this thread. Every theories and tests/experiments shows the possibilities as the result shows both DPK and RNG are possible.
As for the video, it shows only 1 incident. Would provide better idea if it happened over and over on a circumstance where he is the only person killing them and happening at the exact number of kills. Just being around the number cannot prove anything.
But as you can see with gem drops, it is very obvious the game drop system is NOT SOLELY based on DPK. Which approves there is RNG without any questions asked.
While DPK is just a theory for now, possibilities remain either DPK existing to enhance the drop rate or not. Never DPK being the sole drop system.
That's how you read
Would provide better idea if it happened over and over on a circumstance where he is the only person killing them and happening at the exact number of kills. Just being around the number cannot prove anything.
Can you understand that DPK system may have definite range of kills? not exact number
I did this for almost 1200 kills, but I suppose a video that long might be a bit boring to watch. There is a small difference on drop amount.
Confirmed. Not yet by which margin.
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Eh if for anything, at this moment, the substantial drop rate increase theory makes the most sense, meaning after a set amount of kills, the drop rate of a certain item increases and thus a lot more likely to drop. This means the item can still drop before the set amount of kills, just with a lower chance like how it’s designed.
At least the above theory can fit both the mark tunic / aras recipe testing as well as the hanaming gem drop observations.
Note: it can also be a self tweaking system where if the overall rate is much higher than the designed rate, the chance of such item dropping is lowered to make it overall normalized. This kind of system is also used in a lot of games.
Well give or take, it still doesn’t prove anything because “around” the number only emphasized the RNG rather than DPK. Unless proven in a larger amount confirmed as in hundreds of same item dropped at certain range.
1200 is a very small number to define difference between RNG and DPK, and you do know that already.
Just like what jjjsong and I’ve been saying.
RNG is confirmed drop system seeing gem drops
As for DPK it is not confirmed if this system is even implemented or not. If it is then it only enhances the drop rates, never the core drop system.
Around a certain number emphasizes DPK. You remind me of back in elementary school when the science teacher asked us to stand randomly around the room and everyone in the class stood evenly apart. This is not random, random would have clusters and gaps. All of the data i’ve seen for DPK items(not gems) have shown a pattern in drops around a certain threshold.
Assuming that @ingel did not tamper with his data, do you not understand the likely hood of roughly 20 items dropping within 96-109 kills without any drops outside that range? I’m not exactly sure how to do the maths for this one but lets even as far to say that its a 50% for a 1% item to drop in the range of 96-109 kills. By 6 kills the likelihood of that happening is 1.5%. Ofc I’m sure its alot lower then a 50% chance but you get the point.
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I can’t believe there are still people doubting the existence of DPK for “?%” chance items just because there is a slight variation… That is not hard to program at all and highly possible.
Thank you @ingel @dahdoczock @Bald_Dad @FlanFlan for all your efforts.
I’m going to use this knowledge to abuse DPK as much as possible and collect some data myself.
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I just want to add that I’d think a DPK system per player would be pretty horrible. I think it’s important for MMORPGs to offer situations where you are lucky and get a rare item you didn’t even hunt for. Not everyone wants to kill 100000 or 10000 or even 1000 monster of the same time and in a DPK per player system, those players would never ever get a single rare drop. Pretty boring. Mindless grinding shouldn’t be rewarded like that imo.
Now a DPK system is generally bad even if it is per-channel. Because it reduces the chances on being lucky tremendously, especially considering that most players leave the map once they got the item they wanted.
RNG system is simply best for open world MMORPGs.
Now it would be a different story for instanced drops. For example I wouldn’t mind if exactly every 25th dun90 cube opened would yield an Arde Dagger. Then I could at least get it in 9 days rather than weeks.
At the same time, players putting effort into farming for items and never being rewarded for their time has the adverse effect of significant reduction in player retention. I quit 2 MMOs in the past over spending significant amount of hours and not seeing a single reward for my time invested. Like straight up ragequit, uninstalled, never went back lol. I’m certainly not alone in this feeling.
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But the feeling to finally get an item is even greater if you don’t know when you get it. But I also understand the frustration it brings.
Some RO private servers started to introduce systems like “0.1% drop rate, but guaranteed item after 2000 kills if item didn’t drop until then” kind of thing. Maybe that would be an option too.
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That is the change I’m hoping for.
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