Tree of Savior Forum

Arde Dagger Drop Chance 5% for real or joke?

General Discussion
#165

Just here to add data;

162 Boxes

126 Talt (77.78%)
24 Necro Cards (14.81%)
8 Beetleback Recipe (4.94%)
2 Zircon (1.23%)
1 Opal (0.62%)
1 Arde Dagger (0.62%)

If it took me 162 tries to get a dagger, then there was only a 0.025% chance of that happening to me.

So if there are 17,000~ active players on average. (Ignoring the fact that Bots exist, people too low for the dungeon, and people who don’t care to farm Arde Dagger)

Then that means among those 17,000 players, only me and 3~ other players should statistically be unlucky enough to have to wait 162+ boxes in order to get their first Arde Dagger.

I know I usually have bad luck; but it’s usually statistically within the worst 20%~ of luck. I’ve never been so far down that the chance of my misfortune isn’t even a whole number.

It would make sense to me if the drop rate was actually lower than 5%.
I’m not dumb enough to think that because I got it at 0.62%, that it’s that low of a rate. But I wouldn’t be too surprised if we were to find out one day that the rate was actually closer to 2.5% or so.
It would still mean that I had a 1.655% chance of this happening to me, and 280 other people would have the same thing happen. But those numbers are more realistic to me than actually “winning” the gamble of 0.025%.
Of course, it is still the possibility that I’m just one of the most unlucky players on ToS; and that the rate is indeed 5%.

INB4 “I got it on my first box, RNG is RNG”

Getting lucky and getting it early is indeed RNG. If you were to get 10 boxes, and have them all Arde Dagger then it can just be explained by RNG luckily blessing you with the drop rate every time. That doesn’t mean the rate is 100% though.

On the other hand, getting severely unlucky, it’s more plausible to take a look at the estimated drop rate and not only attribute it to RNG. If one were to open 500 boxes and somehow they didn’t get a single dagger. It would be rather unbelievable for someone to fail to get the dagger (at 5% droprate) with a 99.9999999993% statistical certainty.

Edit:
Oh, and good thing I only re-rolled my first box (60k).

If I continued rerolling for the next 53 (and got the Arde Dagger at the same 162th opening); I would have spent 1.6mil opening boxes to get my Dagger.

Obviously, buying from the market would have been better than re-rolling boxes in my case.

3 Likes
#166

Did you open all at once?

#167

Did they raise the rates to this? I got 4 in one day… I’m not bragging legit asking

#168

well i did not count i think im around the 5% mark but i read so many comments that are they out of the odds that the question remains if its really 5% …
I mean if its lower its just not worth rerolling thats all

#169

Got arde in my 3rd 90 dung run. Since then about 150 cubes opened, 3 zircons, 2 beetles, no arde though :stuck_out_tongue:

#170

Such a story is not far fetched. My pardoner did pretty much only 190 since he was 190. I have done 3x 240 and a couple of times 130 if time was not enough to find a 190 rush group.

That totals to roughly 60 runs on that char of which I re-rolled twice both cube 40 times.

So I also spent millions there trying to get what I wanted. In the end I didn’t, but I stopped rolling ever since. I am pretty convinced that all items are 1% chance tops or maybe 0.5% for the orange things. By now I am running the 190 with 2 chars and still didn’t see a venom recipe while slowly but steadily going for 200 cubes (100 actual cubes and ~50x rerolling twice which technically is a cube)

The loot system is simply bad. There is absolutely no reason to make midgame gear rarer than Eart Tower stuff.

#171

Meanwhile I got 3 Arde Daggers out of one week of dungeoning.

Your problem is bad luck

#172

160+ runs/reroll and 0 Arde 0 Ziron 0 Opal…

#173

Finally after 120+ runs i bought the arde from the market lol (600k)

#174

well at the 190 dungeons thats a bit different.
There probably every maga drop is only 1% but u have different drops with 1% which have value so u can add them up.
At the 90 dungeon there is no alternate drop with value

#175

Suncus maul that is worth 10k? Maga rapier? 20k etc etc

190 doesn’t have several valuable things it has a lot of beetlebacks and 4 items that are worth something.

Venom, rod, bow, 2h.

#176

and max penta is worth something together u are again at 5% ;o

#177

That is only if you assume a one way roll. If it is two way odds become worse.

If it is 5% recipe and then it is RNG’ed which one you get you are in for bad experiences.

And it shows with my own experience. I have over 100 rolls so i should have gotten everything once, but that is far from the case.

#178

well 100 rolls on 5x 1% drops is still no good sample …

#179

In Aion the best dungeons have weekly access, and no more than 4 times. To get a full set or just the item you need the cahces are like. in a year you will be full build .

tree of savior doesnt have anything more than what we have, otherwise you will leave a week after playing because the game is too easy and you are full equipped, for now just have fun bro enjoy the game dont try too hard.

#180

Got one on my first run in the lvl 90 dungeon, yeah i had to come here and brag about it.

#181

No, the chance of getting Arde Dagger is not 5%, it’s about 1%.

#182

You are playing a Korean Grind MMO with a low drop rate based loot system. The game is based on these principals, they will never change this. You are clearly playing the wrong game. The game you were looking for is World of Warcraft.

#183

im a noob and i got it on my first run ever and i didnt think it was much but when i checked the market the price i was puzzled and now i find out the actual drop rate of it. hahaha lucky me :stuck_out_tongue:

#184