Just here to add data;
162 Boxes
126 Talt (77.78%)
24 Necro Cards (14.81%)
8 Beetleback Recipe (4.94%)
2 Zircon (1.23%)
1 Opal (0.62%)
1 Arde Dagger (0.62%)
If it took me 162 tries to get a dagger, then there was only a 0.025% chance of that happening to me.
So if there are 17,000~ active players on average. (Ignoring the fact that Bots exist, people too low for the dungeon, and people who donāt care to farm Arde Dagger)
Then that means among those 17,000 players, only me and 3~ other players should statistically be unlucky enough to have to wait 162+ boxes in order to get their first Arde Dagger.
I know I usually have bad luck; but itās usually statistically within the worst 20%~ of luck. Iāve never been so far down that the chance of my misfortune isnāt even a whole number.
It would make sense to me if the drop rate was actually lower than 5%.
Iām not dumb enough to think that because I got it at 0.62%, that itās that low of a rate. But I wouldnāt be too surprised if we were to find out one day that the rate was actually closer to 2.5% or so.
It would still mean that I had a 1.655% chance of this happening to me, and 280 other people would have the same thing happen. But those numbers are more realistic to me than actually āwinningā the gamble of 0.025%.
Of course, it is still the possibility that Iām just one of the most unlucky players on ToS; and that the rate is indeed 5%.
INB4 āI got it on my first box, RNG is RNGā
Getting lucky and getting it early is indeed RNG. If you were to get 10 boxes, and have them all Arde Dagger then it can just be explained by RNG luckily blessing you with the drop rate every time. That doesnāt mean the rate is 100% though.
On the other hand, getting severely unlucky, itās more plausible to take a look at the estimated drop rate and not only attribute it to RNG. If one were to open 500 boxes and somehow they didnāt get a single dagger. It would be rather unbelievable for someone to fail to get the dagger (at 5% droprate) with a 99.9999999993% statistical certainty.
Edit:
Oh, and good thing I only re-rolled my first box (60k).
If I continued rerolling for the next 53 (and got the Arde Dagger at the same 162th opening); I would have spent 1.6mil opening boxes to get my Dagger.
Obviously, buying from the market would have been better than re-rolling boxes in my case.