Tree of Savior Forum

The road to a perfect legit +15 test

General Discussion
#43

For the love of god @Awoooo, your formula is correct but you’re pulling data input out of your ass. lmao. please stop it’s getting ridiculous. It shouldn’t even be considered “Math” since all you’re doing is baseless assumption/generalization/summary.

You’re talking as if silver transferring isn’t a problem on this game(the main variable when it comes to upgrading), here let me drop some truth bombs on you from a person who actually played, you ****in casual:

  • Attributes > gear
  • +15 isn’t mandatory on this game aside from showing off, you’d really think that thousands of players will attempt to do it right away? nope, it’s common sense to dump silver on attributes first. Go check the iTOS ET clear and you’ll see that none of them have +15.
  • Silver circulation is so slow due to how trade system works, + majority of rich players have items as assets. Game is so dead lately to the point that the demand of boss items is getting really low since everyone has them already.
  • Stop talking as if having an alchemist is like having a gold mine, alchemist isn’t really profitable due to its high demand + competition. No serious, go make one so you’ll know. Most guilds has them for personal use. and really dilgelle? The easiest sht to farm ingame that anyone can do? you really think that competition won’t exist?
  • Not everyone buys silver( fastest way)

Just stop. Stop flaunting your so called “math” and your over exaggerated fictional impractical data. You have bunch of missing variables.

3 Likes
#44

I totally agree with you :slight_smile:

1 Like
#45

casual.png957×430 180 KB

Your turn!

I did write out a big long reply but I changed my mind as you wanted to make this about experience.

#46

Whether or not his math is right, what does that have to do with his central point? While uncommon, it’s still a very real statistical possibility to get gear to +15 with 0 potential loss.

And why can’t people spend money on both? I have a R7 musketeer who I spent getting my main attributes to about lvl 30. I also have an alt cata who has a Lydeka currently at +12 with 0 potential loss. I’m gonna try to get it to +15. At this point, it’s very possible that I’ll end up losing a potential on 3 more tries, but at the same time, every attempt is a 51% chance ot succeed, it’s also very possible for me to reach +15 with 0 potential loss and without cheating. It makes sense for items like Lydeka which have staying power for 100 levels or more to overupgrade, especially since it’s not that expensive as a level 75 weapon.

I wish people would ditch the guilty until proven attitude they seem to have around here. I’m waiting like everyone else for IMC to get their ■■■■ together and ban the people who used exploits to overupgrade their gear, but at the same time, having +15 gear with 0 potential loss isn’t that outlandish, and depending on the level of the gear, isn’t that expensive, especially when you have high level characters who can farm silver pretty easily.

1 Like
#47

1 in 209 isn’t that unlikely. However, odds of having 2 perfect +15 is 1 in 43403, for 2 specific high leveled items. Considering the fact that most ToS players do not even progress that far, I don’t even know if there are 43k attempts on those items.

IMC should have the information on how many refine attempts there is for a particular set of items. And with that it is easy to determine if the outstanding number of +15s is likely due to chance or hacks.

Of course we all already know they are likely due to hacks - with circumstantial evidence.

#49

Calling the math political and then calling my response a strawman? Are you high?

#51

Please do tell me exactly what strawman I built then.

The point that was being made in the thread was that not enough people could make enough attempts at a +15.

I pointed out this was false by correcting people on the total number of players not being the same as the currently online number of players or the daily peak number of players. This is often misunderstood in games.

Now I’m going to block you as I’m bored and don’t have to participate further. Anyone with half a brain understand the point that was made by this point in the discussion, it’s over. You’re only derailing it now by calling me names and wrong and failing to address any point made.

#52

Statistics are made up of real data. His data is not real, therefor any math applied to it is pointless.

#54

51% per try. The chance to get from +10 to +11 is the same to get from +999999999 to +1000000000. Its not that hard guys.

#55

That doesn’t make sense. Maybe that 43403 number is for two perfect +15 in a row?
The odds for rolling a 6 on a die are 1/6 no matter if you just rolled a 6 or any other number. The odds for getting two 6 in a row … that’s a different case.

#56

0.0048*0.0048 = 1/43403

It is for successfully making 2 perfect +15s with no potential loss.

The refines in between the first +15 you make and the 2nd +15 you make doesn’t matter (independent tries). Each +15 has a success chance of 0.0048. Two of them is 0.0048 * 0.0048.

Yes, I was describing 2 tries of perfect +15. Whether it is IN A ROW or not, doesn’t affect the overall chance.

Imagine if you are rolling 3 dice, I want the first die to be 6, the second die I don’t care (i.e. refine in between can fail), the third die I want a 6. The probability is:

P = 1/6 * 6/6 * 1/6 = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36

I think I’m right on this but my statistics is getting rusty. Anyone with more recent education on statistics can chime in. :smile:

I used 2 perfect +15’s because I thought that was what the OP said initially. I reviewed the OP and :

I don’t know why two +15’s stuck in my head. But the point still stands I guess.

#57

b[quote=“CookyKim, post:56, topic:316773”]
Yes, I was describing 2 tries of perfect +15. Whether it is IN A ROW or not, doesn’t affect the overall chance.

Imagine if you are rolling 3 dice, I want the first die to be 6, the second die I don’t care (i.e. refine in between can fail), the third die I want a 6. The probability is:

P = 1/6 * 6/6 * 1/6 = 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36
[/quote]
If that was true, then everytime someone in the world rolled a 6 the chances for the next person rolling a 6 sometime later would decline. Given how many dice are getting rolled each day on our planet it should be impossible to roll a 6 for everyone. But the odds are still 1/6, because it doesn’t matter if it happened before or not. Probability doesn’t have a memory, especially since you’re explicitly talking about independent tries.

#58

Oh god Im pissing myself of laughter.

#59

So I revised some statistics.

I think you’re missing my point here. I’m not arguing about the probability of 1 trial. We all know that is 0.0048.

What I’m trying to describe is:

Like I said before, I somehow misread that the OP mentioned the chance of having more than one perfect +15, i.e. Two or more Perfect +15’s. So I wanted to demonstrate the chance of succeeding Two perfect +15’s.

And here lies the problem, due to my distant memory of statistics it did not occur to me to stress the importance of number of trials.

This problem is solved using binomial cumulative probability.

Probability of success in a single trial: 0.0048

Number of trials: 2

Number of Successes: 2

P(X=2) = 2.304E-05 = 1/43403

Conclusion: ASSUMING the minimum amount of items needed (2), the chance of getting them both to perfect +15 is 1/43403.

However, now I do realize that the number of trials can be more than 2 times. For a ballpark We can substitute the number of trials with the average number of attemps a resonable player is going to do try - lets say it is 10.

Probability of success in a single trial: 0.0048

Number of trials: 10

Number of success: 2 or more

P (X>=2) = 0.001011 = 0.1% = 1/1000

So if a player takes 10 items in hopes that 2 of them will turn out to be perfect +15’s, the chance is 1/1000.

Yea me too.

#60

And since most of the money gets dumped late and there’s easily >100 people trying ■■■■ like that…I don’t see your point.

EDIT:
Just to clarify, I’m through 6 Maledooms already on my Klai char right now… so that’s easily more than 10 in total. Just buy, do whatever you can, sell. You don’t lose much money that way.

#61

There are actually about 124,000 active players.

#62

The point was to give a general idea how likely some things are to (or not to) happen. And in doing so, come up with a conclusion if most perfect +15’s are exploited or legit.

Just substitute the number of trials you think would be for the average active population. 10 is pretty generous considering that most players don’t even progress that far. We will never know the actual statistics unless IMC releases it.

At average 20 trials we are looking at 0.004133 = 0.41% = 1/242. Which is a pretty high chance to find someone with two perfect +15’s. Average 20 trials for the population is pretty extreme though.

#63

I actually meant +15 or higher, i apologize for making you confused with my wording.

Also want to clarify again that this test was just for fun, it was too short and it’s too random that it doesn’t prove much at all.
I’m only trying to make clear that it’s very doubtful on higher level items since it cost a lot of silver. You wouldn’t just buy another high level item to re try like you would do with for example a grand cross which is only level 40.

Few day’s ago i made a chainmail ( level 15 ) armor for my alt to +18 on the first armor i bought.
It broke two times on +8 to +9, one time on +12 to +13, then from +18 to +19 it broke so it was back to +17 and upped it again to +18 with 1/5 potential.

I feel like there is a little trick in upgrading that helps having a success. If you set the anvil usually there is a lag spike, so don’t start hitting it immediately but wait a little until that lag is gone. It seems that it helps me… But it could also just be made belief.
If anyone try’s this again and feels like this did help, please let us know here :slight_smile:

#64

I agree with you with that lag spike thing. When i hit the anvil immediately/very fast it tends to break. I feel the success rate is more if you hit it slowly. I manage to make +14 and +13 with 10pcs. dunkel falchions. Both failed once before reaching +14 and +13. The +13 breaks when i tried to upgrade it to +14.

#65

I love how RNG makes people so superstitious.

3 Likes