Tree of Savior Forum

Statistical Impossibility

General Discussion
#41

i think you are mistaking my words or not fully understanding my statement. My entire discussion follows around that if the estimated rate of getting a key is around 39% for each individual. It is almost impossible for 10 individuals to not even get 1.

#42

I am entirely understanding your statement. I am stating that ‘outliers’ in data happen all the time.

If half the people in your group got a key, it would be nothing special. This is why there aren’t a horde of people posting on the forums shouting “My group has a 45% key rate when it should have been 39%!? What gives, IMC?”. You’re only posting because a freak outlier happened. It’s rare but entirely possible.

#43

You’re right, it’s absolutely impossible for 11 people out of 15000 to win one of 5000 keys.
I do wonder where those other 10000 individuals that don’t win a key come from though… I mean you’re practically guaranteed a key!

#44

i definitely don’t want to imply that it is guaranteed that we should get at least 1, but to have so many people and get none seems sort of improbable

#45
  1. You didn’t log into the forums thus you didn’t register for beta at all.(this was everywhere in reddit and other websites that said this)(You just joined 4 hours ago on profile)
  2. You made so much accounts IMC IP traced you and removed your IP as a candidate for beta
  3. You live inside China, Korea, etc and was IP blocked already
  4. Because you’re a complete ■■■ and made over 1000 accounts and tried to BM IMC for their work on forums with a fake account instead of emailing/replaying to the first msg they sent you that which will go to a staff member.
    ^^
#46

Again, you act like 10 is a lot of people when there’s 15000 people in the running.
Cmon be realistic.

#47

It is improbable, but that’s just how random chance works.

1 Like
#48

NeverLucky. RubberyDucky. BabyRage. 2Salty.

#49

There’s several other reports in this thread, they all follow the same pattern, and if I add my data, it’s 5 keys out of 108 people, or 1 in 21.6. Only a small fraction of lottery entrants went to the forum.

#50

I am amused by how many posts there are in this thread “correcting” the original post, when it’s one of the only ones using correct math. It’s not even hard math. Its 1 in 3, 11 times. Just as the OP showed. Not “impossible” as he said, but still very very unlikely.

His flaw is that the total “registered users” is probably horribly incorrect because it’s probably an amount that doesn’t correspond with registered users on the forums for whatever reason.

#51

RNG gods didn’t favor you on this momentous occasion.

Just like how flipping a Coin is a 50/50 chance but you can still flip it a bunch of times and never get the side you want.

#52

Out of me and my 6 friends we got 3 keys.
3 out of 7 people in our skype got keys. We kinda thought that about 3 or 4 of us should get keys, according to registered forum players and keys distributed. And we were right.
It’s still just luck, even 50% means you can fail 90 times and succeed once after that.

#53

first of all, i’d like to thank all of those who have contributed to this conversation.
after reading through all the replies, there seems to be two conclusions that can be drawn, both of which are still improbable.

  1. As many of the members on the forum stated, that in order to get a beta key, you have to login to the forum which makes the true count of players around 15000 which if you have 5000 keys to give out, then the chance of it is 1/3. This means that in my group of friends, we really were super unlucky or there is truly a statistical problem.

  2. There is no need to login to the forum, which the assumption for that is that the projected number of members who tried to get beta keys are in the hundreds of thousands. (which in terms of forum size, it doesn’t match since there is only 10% of the people registering and logging in to the forum. this violates the 90-9-1 rule) both of which are statistical anomalies

#54

[quote=“teddy, post:53, topic:18000”]
There is no need to login to the forum, which the assumption for that is that the projected number of members who tried to get beta keys are in the hundreds of thousands
[/quote]Not even close! :flushed:

Imagine the probability of none of your friends getting a beta key was 50%. How many members would there have to be?

It would be approximately [ (x-5000) / x ]^ 11 = 50%. This simplifies to x = 5000 / (1 - (11th root of 1/2)), or around 81,000 projected members necessary. Since the number of total forum members at the deadline was 12k, it still fits within the so-called statistical analysis. :innocent:

#55

it’s just your luck.
i only register 1 email and i got the key ~_~

#56

You also have to account the media and contributor that are not on this site…Also how do we even know the method they use to choosing beta testers? for all we know they could be looking for region specific

#57

I guess you people are this desperate now. There’s nothing wrong with it. The forum accounts don’t represent the amount of users ON THE SITE. You didn’t need a forum account to get in. Only an account on the website portion. Which is all that was required to get in. You people didn’t get in. Get over it.

#58

I just want to say that out of my group of friends none of us got a key, we are 13 total.
Sheer luck can be pretty petty.

#59

So people volunteering to help translate the game without any prior notice of a reward on their own free-time, and then receiving beta-keys as a surprise, is “rigged”.

Pls logout.

4 Likes
#60

If statistics tells you have 30% chances, it does NOT means that if you get 100 tickets, you will have 30 winning tickets for sure. You may have from 0 to 100 winning tickets with a different probability each.

1 Like