Tree of Savior Forum

Statistical Impossibility

General Discussion
#21

were people never taught probability in school? :scream:

#22

The chance for 11 guy to get at least 1 key is: the chance of 1 guy get key and chance of 10 guys not get key
1/3 x (2/3)^10 = 0.00578


#23

That’s called a surcharge
 Do you even know what you are talking about ?

#24

You get the point.
That’s what I pointed out. It’s obvious that they woudn’t share the real number~

#25

Just another “waaaaah I didn’t get a key and neither did 10 of my friends, fix your broke seletion process
waaaaah” thread.

#26

Can confirm. That said, the login was supposed to be for the whole domain but not only the forum or the site account, respectively, doesn’t automatically create the other one, it seems they also still maintain two separate user databases.

#27

I assume you replied to the wrong person because I have no idea what you’re talking about in regards to my comment >w<

Edit; I should note, this wasn’t the first account I made for this forum. I used another waaaaaay before the beta announcements. So there wasn’t an overflow of people during that time. I’ve also never had someone use the word “surcharge” for that


Sorry if it seems offensive, but these forums are not aesthetically pleasing and are a pain in the ass to navigate.

#28

Tbh i kinda find out this is abit rigged?Count that translators got 3 keys!And lets say there is like 50 of them.BOOM!100 ppl rigged out.

Then there is army of smurfs.

Just legit ppl did not stand big chance.

#29

Obama was involved. This was an inside job all along.

#30

i know about the 1-9-90 rules. I am going on the assumption that once you register for the website, your forum account is created automatically. I am glad that we are having meaningful discussions that helps us understand the situation better.

#31

Rigged? Translators have put in more time and effort than anyone [other than developers] so far.You wouldn’t know what the game says if it weren’t for them.They deserve as many keys as they want.

#32

I don’t thin that was the proper match anyway. It wasn’t that there was a 39% chance to get a key, but.say there’s 15,000 people, whic is almost right. for the first key, that’s a 1 in 15,000 chance to get the key. For the second key, there’s a 1 in 14,999 change. And so on until the 5000th key, someone has a 1 in 10,000 chance. Maybe if you do the math and add up all the probability, it doen’t add up to 39%. Maybe it does. I’m just saying it’s probably not the right calculation.

But I did horrible in math classes so I’m probably wrong.

#33

Statistics don’t work that way. You each would have a 1/3 chance of getting a key. That doesn’t mean every third person, that just means you have a 1 in 3 chance. It’s just like how drops work on iRO. You could get that card on you first monster or your 10000th monster. It still had the same drop rate.

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#34

Stop shooting the damn barn!

1 Like
#35

Hm.
Tastes and Colors I guess. This forum is actually really well-made (technically speaking).

You said it right ? Then it means you imply that this is IMC’s fault (takes forever to load
 OS is garbage
) right ?
Then I answer you : It’s not. That’s a surcharge of the server, if of course you are talking of today or yesterday.

#36

care to elaborate on what you mean?

#37

[quote=“fr0zens, post:22, topic:18000”]
The chance for 11 guy to get at least 1 key is: the chance of 1 guy get key and chance of 10 guys not get key
[/quote] No, it’s the flipped chance of none of them getting a key: (2/3)^11 = 1.2%;
100 - 1.2% = 98.8% of getting at least 1 key.

teddy, did your friends make sure to log into the main website before July 30th EST?

#38

Math class incoming.

1 Like
#39

oh right, that was the case they got only 1 key, so getting at least 1 key is the opposite of getting none, 98.8%
lol poor OP, 98.8% and he and his friends didn’t get it

#40

You’re drawing a circle around an arbitrary group of people and concluding that 0% of people getting a key in that group when the purported/estimated rate was 39%~ indicates an issue.

Essentially you’re grouping data arbitrarily and stating that it leads to a conclusion on the whole set of data.

For example, cancer. It’s estimated that 1 in 3 of people will get some form of cancer at some point in their life. However, I know people whose whole families have never had it. If I drew a circle around their family and stated that 0% of people got cancer, ever, then that’s clearly fallacious logic.

In short, your sample size is too small to show anything. I’m sure there’s groups of 11 people out there who have all got keys. Sucks, but that’s random chance for you.

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