Tree of Savior Forum

Statistical Impossibility

General Discussion
#1

I believe there is truly something wrong with the Beta Key distribution process. I have 10 friends + myself who has registered all in different periods of time to try and obtain a Beta Key. Not one of us got into the Beta. Since there is about 15000 registered Users on the forum and 5000 keys given out. It should be a 1/3 chance that a person should get in. To have (1/3)^11 = 0.00000564502. This is a ridiculously low percentage and should be looked into by Administrators.

Thank You for your effort.

#2

Im not saying it can’t happen, but I basically got the same thing. Out of around 8 accounts used by my friends and I, we managed to get only one key.

#3

I know these things happen from time to time, but your situation just confirms my suspicion and should be looked into by administrators and staff

#4

I’m in a group with 30 people in watssap and only one managed to get a key for this Beta . I have always followed your work and divuguei for much here in my city. I thought the chances would be greater , because to 1/3 that is very wrong !

#5

Just so you know, there’s probably a lot more people then those 15k, because you don’t automatically get a forum account if you just sign up on the main page.

Look at my case, for example: if you check my profile, you will see that my forum account was made today, yet, I signed up on the main page days ago, but only today did I press the “Forum” tab. What does that mean? My forum account was only made when I actually went to the forums.

I bet many people that sign up on the homepage didn’t even check the forums even once, hence no forum account were created to them, but they were indeed in the run for a beta key.
We’re looking at a number way above 15000 for the people sign up to get a key!

2 Likes
#6

Just because you don’t get the beta key doesn’t mean you don’t have to create a thread and talk about unfairness. The keys has been distributed and that’s enough of that. Remember it’s just 5000 keys with over 10,000 community wanted to play.

In other words, you just don’t have the luck.

#7

IT IS not Speaking of luck, but of Statistics.

#8

I’m with 8 other people and NONE of us got a beta key. I very much have the suspicion that something went wrong. All of us for example have a completely wrong “Joined Date”. I think this is what happened to A LOT of people and this might be the reason. Only thing that we personally noticed was really off. I hope thats not the case, otherwise I have my doubts if they can support the game in a professional manner if even something like this didn’t work properly.

But then again, like I said, it simply could be ridicuously bad luck, so ridiculous that its more than just unlikely if we take other stories into consideration that had similar big amounts of people sign up with them.

Whatever, its not like they would do anything about it even if it was true.

#9

Well as much as i think your assumption is correct that not everybody who creates an account on this website will log into the forum. Statistically speaking Majority of players will browse around just to check announcements on forums. so the number of active accounts should be fairly accurate to a certain degree.

#10

I think for 11 people out of 15000 not to get a key isn’t that much of a statistical impossibility.
Knowing each other doesn’t exactly raise your chances now does it?

3 Likes
#11

Let it go dude, let it go.

(This is not a Frozen refrerence, shut up)

2 Likes
#12

Not exactly true, having in mind that the announcements appear on the main page, one might not be tempted to go to the forums. Other situations is if you’re already part of another community, with the announcements on the main page and also being posted on the community you participate, your only reason for coming to the site would be to sign up for the beta.

There’s plenty of reasons why someone might not be interested in the forums.

#13

With so much in life boiling down to random chance or luck,it’s not impossible.Everything isn’t always going to go your way.Sometimes it just turns out like that,and there’s no one to blame for that;not you or the game admins.

They developed this great looking game that we’re all in love with and excited for,I think they can [and did] run a test picking process without screwing it up.

2 Likes
#14

dude… here for you:
15000/5000 x 10 = 1/30 was the chance, by your calculation :s is a good chance…

#15

Still luck. What about the over 10,000 people who didn’t get the key? It’s not always you in this life. I advise for you to move on. No point of qq-ing nor rant about it.

#16

Your account shows you joined 42mins ago. Thus, you were never even entered into the Beta key Raffle.

#17

I’m the only one out of a 5 peoples group to get the Beta Key… Since that, I started to doubt about the number they give us in the about page.
They said “Connect to the main page”, not “Connect to the forum”.
With this in mind, I think that the ~13k peoples who have an account on the forum isn’t the real number. We don’t have the number of peoples registered on the MAIN page.
I saw posts saying a roundly ~39% (5000/13000*100, it’s that simple) chances to get the Beta Key. The calculation isn’t false, but the starting number is (btw your calculation is false OP, my previous sentence say it all).

To make it simple, the calculation seems to be 5000/evenmorethan13xxx, because rule of the 1%-9%-90% (just google it)
It means that the amount of peoples connected to the forum is by far much smaller than the amount of peoples connected (at the right time) on the MAIN page.
If the GetKey drop rate goes down to 10% or 5%, it’s not impossible for a group of 10 peoples to not get at least One Single Key !

I hope I’m clear, if you find this post offensive in anyway, please don’t be mean, I want it to be clear for myself too, so if you have some clue, please share them !

#18

This forum OS is garbage. I hardly even click through stuff because majority of the time it leads to an error or takes forever to load. When I joined… I think I clicked into the forums, they didn’t load completely so I said ■■■■ this ■■■■ and didn’t check it much after that. I’m bored today, so… :3

#19

The one thing u guys have missed out on, is the amount of people.

Majority of people signed up in the official website, yet u are taking the statistics of those who came into the forum.

There is at least an estimate of 50k people for the CBT key, not the forum number of 13k.

#20

when you are saying “10 people” or “30 of us” didn’t get a key you are only giving really small sample, which is quite possible for 15k registered account and 5k keys.

I’m too lazy look it up the terms and write it down here, but consider this example; throw a coin for a 10k times, for heads or tails. and pick any random 10 throw as sample.what are the chances of getting 10 heads or tail.