Mindless whiteknights proven wrong yet again.
The most important part of the Q&A is of course this:
Some players have suggested that the error can be reproduced through specific addons, but we have yet to find any connection between them.
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IMC can tell you with a straight face that success rate will always be greater than failure rate. 
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I can feel the same thing too, hitting on anvil, just an animation.
Can you please explain this to me lol
I wasn’t expecting such a thoroughly detailed announcement about this issue and I’m surprised in a positive way. However, the hot debate we had yesterday could’ve been avoided if the staff members said they were preparing this announcement.
I can’t say I’m at ease yet, specially after reading what @Queue posted. Some people were exploiting that “guess the number” event by inputting a command to show what was the correct number of the day and that makes me think the way enhancement works may be easier to exploit than one might think. What if there’s an input command or another way to check the result of your enhancement attempts before hitting the anvil too? You could even reach high enhancement levels with just regular anvils by putting them, checking if the enhancement will be successful or not and get away from the anvil in case it’s a failed attempt for it to disappear, then put another anvil, check if it’s a successful attempt, rinse and repeat until you get only successful results, even if you need to retry a million times with regular anvils.
Sometimes I think the best way to handle this would be giving the enhancement function to the Blacksmith NPC instead of placing the anvil on the ground for you to hit it, i.e., talk to the NPC, a window will appear for you to select the item you want to enhance and the anvil you want to use for it. That would make people not feel doubtful about the enhancement results being manipulated or not by the player.
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what part of it exactly did you not understand? all of it?
@Pokart That’s actually very possible considering what queue posted and your solution could fix the issue indeed. Probably why most games use npcs for that huh.
After +5, your success rate will decrease the higher your enhancement level.
Armors have a slightly higher success rate compared to weapons.
Your success rate for both weapons and armors will never be less than 51.2%
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This might be what “that addon” does. 
After all these clarifications, I can now safely say that I have absolute sh!t luck in this game while others are the opposite. Guess I’ll just buy TP and roll gach—oh! 
This assumes the “success/failure” cases are sent to the client which they most likely aren’t. And yes, some of the lua code never runs on client-side.
So I think the basic pre-requirement for this case to exist might not be met.
And given that they could track how many times the anvil tried to destroy an item, that means that the old assumption that as soon as you destroy the anvil it gets saved on the DB is true, unless something else happens there.
Assuming this, unless you can find the seed and how many numbers were generated prior to your enhancement attempt or read the memory of the server processes it’s highly unlikely that you can do anything of the sort.
Also, this is the ktos announcement on the same topic:
http://tos.nexon.com/news/tosnotice/view.aspx?n4ArticleSN=1110
It’s actually funny how the highest number of fails are attempts to +8 ~ +10. It reflects what I see in-game when trying to enhance things. lol
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wait am I reading that table right? Is it showing number of tries vs success/failures? Meaning 3 tries at 35 , then 2 at 36 then 3 at 37? Did someone there manage to go from 35 to 37 skipping 36?
edit: oh never mind . Forgot diamond anvils were a thing for a second there. Guy probably used diamond at 37 , failed and tried again.
do you have this IMCRandom logic? Like, is it true random or there is some logic shenanigans behind this?
it has to be otherwise they couldn’t claim the minimum chance to be 51.2% , meaning any number has the same chances of coming out of that IMCRandom.
I guess it depends on how the logic behind it works.
If IMCRandom sets a variable to define a “dificulty” level, that could use the actual enhance level number (as the successRate use, even though this will not be set lower than 51.2), then increasing the the value of IMCRandom based on that dificulty level, making (IMCRandom > successRate) to more commonly return true based on this internal “dificulty” level it created.
It would be easy to do, if you think that any enhance level >= 8 will end up always using 51.2 (for weapons and shields), so this number will be the only successRate compared most of the time, as +8 is quite easy to achieve, and greater values than this are always target for discussions on how the enhance mechanics work, or rather how fair it is.
EDIT: but IMCRandom have attributes (1, 100), so I guess it really pick a number in between it. But who knows if it is really random
I’m willing to bet all IMCRandom(int a , int b ) does is get a random number between a and b ( with a and b included) .
They probably did it like this because some languanges don’t have an easy to read random function ready to use, so they just made their own. It probably just calls the Math lib RANDOM and asks it to pick a number. No reason to get worked up by it.
But is funny to see that every attempt higher than +8 (weapons and shield-type subweapons) will always be, virtually, 50/50.
It doesn’t feel like this, specially if you look at the charts here:
and here:
Only if anvils play a role in the process other than Potential consumption that we don’t know.
I understand that a 50/50 should seem like upgrade should be easier, but think of it like this, how hard it is to throw a coin 16 times and get the same face every time? heck say you can get a different face 5 times but you have to rethrow it again. Do the test in your home and every time you do a throw add the cost , if you fail 5 throws start again and add the cost. You will notice you will get similar results.
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Yes, but is kinda weird higher levels having the same success possibility, regardless the level itself.
Like, +8 and +40 have the same success possibility, there is no increase in dificulty (I’m not saying this one is not difficult enough).
Then add on top of it this -5 when fail, and makes it even more unrewarding. Its like only this -5 that plays the difficulty factor, not the enhance level itself. When you reach +10, then your success will always be the same 50/50 until the end, instead of slowly decreasing (since past the security level) as you go.
If they, one glorious day, ever consider the second (and also reduce the -5 penalty), they would make it much more affordable and reachable.
Nice to see the code. Sad to see the code.
the 50/50 is the real penalty. You are only seeing it from one side. You think , sure from +39 to +40 I have a 50% chance to succeed, but the chances of getting from 16 to +39 are not 50% at all.
lets label the chance of success head and to fail tail. from +9 to +39 on your first try ( let’s exclude diamond anvils here for a second) you’d need a roll of hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh , any other roll and you do not reach +39 on your first try without diamond anvils. Do the math on that and you will see how hard it is to get to it.
obviously the real chance is higher then that cause ToS has potential but still its pretty hard.
Other games might have a smaller chance to get to max enhancement but none of those games actually go up to +40, most stop at 10 or 15. I’d wager that the chances in those game of making a +15 are waaaaay easier then ToS +40.
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If the penalty was always -1, for example, then it would be more pleasing and +40 more reachable. But I think we agree that the % rate is not the main issue.
Also, at the same time, equaling everything to 51% chance rate does not make lower levels easier, but certanly make higher levels more affordable (as everything is flat when you reach this rate) if you gonna compare to other games’ way to handle enhance system, specially if you gonna ignore both games’ “level reduction when fail” aspect.
The % itself is not the main problem, but the dificulty aspect of ToS enhancement system. Following your example, every single attempt have the same chance to be true or false, but what makes it hard is, if false, you will loose 5 other lucky attempts you got. Fail another time in a row and then 10 lucky attempts are gone. It is even worse when you can only control the ammount of attempts (through different anvils), not the luck itself (like an anvil that could increase the success rate)
As % rate is flat, this level-reduction introduces the dificulty aspect of the system, that is not progressive. You can feel very frustrated at +21 for example, where you should not because you reached only half of the maximum level you can get.
This is not creating a progressive dificulty that could be rewarding at lower levels and risk-taken at higher ones, it is creating a burden. Today, a +40 equipment is considered cheating due to how frustrating a person would get to ever attempt reach this level
I’m not saying the system is fair , the difficulty comes mostly from the amount of enhancements available actually , 40 is just too much and nearly impossible to reach , even with an enhancement chance of 51.2%.
There is just too many enhancement levels and that’s the main issue here, not the chances or the penalty. The chance being the same I think its actually fair considering how much atk you get , the penalty and the cost to go one up higher.
The problem with 40 enhancements is even if the penalty was only -1 the chance would still be incredibly hard, near impossible to reach without diamond anvils and it would still be pay to win.
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