Tree of Savior Forum

How to enhance items to +16 with high probability

General Discussion
#82

so make up your mind do those lucky streaks and fail streaks work or not?

Anyway I’ve finished reading up a few articles on RNG and it’s been said several times that it’s not really possible to get a feel of the pattern if done well. On that note I am assuming that the RNG in ToS is not really done well, therefore these rituals are legit and we should be compiling which ones are working the most!

As has been pointed out in this entire pointless argument that has dragged on, read the RNG string to avoid fail streaks and if you’re on a roll, just keep going! It seems that the pattern for success and fail is the strongest ritual for now. Bring several other gear and extra anvils to try and take advantage of this. As for the others, need to do several tests on fps and player population to check on those because they have conflicting reports.

#83

Exactly. It’s not. Only if there’s a bug, seed was leaked or discovered. I said that earlier.

As well that in the end it’s all luck. The same method for testing can trick you into making progress in alt weapons instead of high end ones or stopping when you could continue or find 5 fails at once.

It is done well by programming point of view. It attends to what it’s made for. If you want to change how it works, that’s a design/feature/code change.

Pretty much that. Like this link I sent you:
https://answers.unity.com/questions/976139/how-to-make-random-number-generation-more-random.html

It’s still random if it produces similar results. Plus, extra:
https://forums.unrealengine.com/community/general-discussion/24298-how-does-ue4-generate-random-numbers-in-c-blueprints

UE4 uses the same rand() just like ToS.

They do but ultimately goes down to luck. And, scary, it’s actually ~50%.

Let’s say you have an exam question and there’s 2 answers:
[ ] A
[ ] B

Knowing the answer doesn’t change the fact that the question is 50/50. And you still can fail if you’re unsure and guess it wrong.

#84

emenguard cannon
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It’s not the 1st time I got +15 without pot loss, but I should have recorded, taken prints.
Even if you can have luck streaks, I won’t push farther without diamond anvils in this example.
Let’s assume I was on a roll and used 10 more millions, nothing would guarantee that the weapon won’t go +4 0 pot suddenly.

The worst I had once was to fail 5 times with 5 diamond anvils in a row.

4 Likes
#85

This is what makes me so paranoid about this.

I suppose I should thank you for getting me to learn more about RNG itself but the ideal doesn’t change that I would be a lot more comfortable if it’s a fresh 50% on every attempt. There are indeed patterns, and several other games let players read these patterns to some extent. Finally there are games that have such a set pattern you can memorize it.

In the end though what I first said is true but misworded:
That these rituals exist implies each upgrade attempt is not exactly 50% but instead tied to several other factors than may show a pattern you can read for a better chance or to avoid successive fails. It seems that this is very basic to RNG and I can’t trust IMC to go beyond basic so might as well accept these rituals for what they are.

#86

It is ~50%.

No. They are ~50%. If they weren’t 50% it means you’re somehow changing the conditions on server side and making it a sure shot.

And again, there’s yet another forum troll trying to talk “heh, IMC can’t change their RNG system DUH”.

Do you even fuggin know programming?

Do you know how fuggin hard is it to write a game compared to using shuffle bags or other PRNG algorithms?

Do you have a fugging idea of what are you saying about?

Why do every troll tries to talk about programming and pull things from a magic top hat trying to justify their argument when they can’t code a simple hello world program?

Do you have any fixation to “it’s IMC, they can’t code” when they fugging coded an entire big game. And as well that using different PRNG functions instead of srand/rand or shuffle bags are something so simple that any new person in coding can do?

I’ll ask you something: If someone can code a fugging game why can’t they change <50 lines in the code they typed on their own?

#87

sad face
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Logged in just for this, not even socketed yet. Game’s so amazing.

3 Likes
#88

Look, there are patterns and if it’s “scarily 50%” then it means for every fail there’s going to be an expected success. If other games used commands like /roll to find a pattern then that means the extra weapons and anvils here can probably be used to determine a pattern to some extent.

You already pointed out the flaws in RNG, the same flaws are in the same RNG in this generally disliked enhancement system. Everywhere it says RNG, with a little effort, shouldn’t show any noticeable patterns but hey what do you know we do notice patterns in this game!

The enhancement system is an old feature, and there are a lot of old features in this game that IMC cannot pay any attention to at this point so yes the enhancement’s RNG system sucks like many other games and as you also already said just take it for what it is cause that’s all we’re getting.

#89

Dont show that. Exploiters defending the current system will have nightmares. It is amusing how exploiter trying so hard defending the exploitable system.

5 Likes
#90

No. You’re doing random wrong that way. Please don’t confuse randomness with uniqueness.

There are no real patterns. They can change out of the blue or stay that way. The same way you can think ok “it will work now” you can try and find 5 fails in a row and break your orange weapon (talking from experience). The same way you can change and make a +16 losing only 2 pot or less. Or get into the known “success, fail, success, fail fail, success success, fail fail fail, success, fail, success success, success, fail” at random.

I didn’t point any flaw. Please don’t fugging distort my words if you don’t know what things are.

A pattern that’s uncertain isn’t really a pattern to be followed in this case. Just means that’s random is random, sometimes you can find >50 >50 <50 >50 >50 and 5 seconds later the entire results are different.

So, changing something for the sake of changing has any value?

“Oh, this code works but it’s too old, let me change it so no one can complain.”

If something is old and works fine there’s usually no reason to rewrite it just for the sake of writing.

Unless you’re refactoring or code reviewing and want to change things here and there.

The fugging code being old or not has nothing to do with this.

So again, can you please go learn to code before trying to talk about code?

Please, don’t pull a jynxie08.

#91

This forum exploiters are so thick face they will try to trick people how hard they can. The phenomenon is actually called gamblers fallacy. Con man always use this trick to gullible people.

4 Likes
#92

Right and if it’s always 50% it shouldn’t matter when people decide to upgrade so you shouldn’t stop when you keep failing because there’s the same chance to succeed and to fail next time always?

What is it really? When you said to stop when you fail consecutively does that not mean the next attempt has a higher chance of failing?

#93

50% means that the condition of success/fail is 50/50 that comes from something such as 0…49 = fail / 50…100 = success.

Nothing you do will ever change this which is the underlying chance of the system.

Being able to guess that the next hit fail or not won’t give you a sure shot.

But after failing many times you can guess that this isn’t a lucky time to upgrade, you’re likely to find more fails and less likely to find a luck streak even though it can happen just in the next hit.

If being able to guess by fail/success sequences changed the chances it would mean moving the 0…49 to 0…30 and 31…100 for success for example.

You’re not doing that. It’s still 50/50 per try when it comes to enhancement chance.

Now if you’re talking about the likeliness of next hit being fail or success and the rate in which your guess is right. Please, don’t confuse that nor add a label “enhancement chance” to it. You’re doing it wrong.

(And please again, I didn’t say consecutively.)

Technically speaking if you say consecutively the probability of failing next is actually lower. I did not say that.

#94

Once again the technical nitpicking on word selection happens while ignoring the general idea.

If there are general guidelines players can take to make RNG more agreeable (which is what you’re doing when you’re attempting to upgrade a weapon to +16 through RNG with a ritual or backing out when you sense bad rolls) then that gives some players an advantage compared to those who are mashing anvils blindly.

There are similar accounts of guidelines and rituals in other games that use the same RNG, why expect ToS to be any different from those games?

If it’s truly 50/50 then there should be no point to these rituals, you are contradicting the idea of 50% if you can aim for a roll that has a higher chance of landing on what you want or avoiding what you don’t.

1 Like
#95

I take back these words:

And I’m done right after this. Have a good night o/

1 Like
#96

Well, thanks for your advice to help people have a better experience with RNG while insisting that it’s truly 50% even though the very idea contradicts each other.

nice 50% right there. Just admit that there are patterns and that the rituals and guidelines in upgrading aim to take advantage of these patterns like all those other games that use the same RNG.

Just to be really nitpicky, “less likely” and “likely to find more fails” are not ■■■■■■■ 50%. In the same logic that it’s either a success or fail, it’s either 50% or not. It’s either the rituals work or they don’t.

Stupid analogy btw, I said global warming implies that humans are bad and you’re saying global warming is happening because of the byproducts of human activity and not humans themselves as that’s the technicality of it like the byproducts of human activity in other planets but global warming is also a hoax.

#98

The Gambler’s Fallacy.:sweat_smile: Tha is the reason we need to stop playing online game and go to school .

1 Like
#99
  1. Post enchanting tips on forum
  2. Go to sleep
  3. Wake up next day, go to work
  4. Come home from work, check thread - almost 100 comments
  5. ???
  6. Profit

MFW I have no face

7 Likes
#102

That’s what happens when you post shitty rumors with a ‘How to’ in the topic.

3 Likes
#103

funny thread XD OH HEY TIME FOR STATS

srsly tho, in any RNG systems (true or pseudo, in coding or real life, DOESN’T matter) if you say the chance is 50% that means given a LOT of tries, as many as INFINITE tries, about half of them succeeds and half of them fails. But there is never a way to guarantee for any smaller window (smaller than infinite tries, anyways) to be exactly 50% or else that means there is a pattern

We only know that the bigger the window of tries is, the closer to 50% your observation is. Your tries are just samples out of the infinite tries and that’s just how sampling works.

ofc these superstitions are not what forces your RNG to work. They are results of keeping record of player actions and the upgrade result. These are called correlation, not causation. Just because two things is observed to happen often together does not mean one of them causes the other thing to happen. :tired:

So yes, it’s still RNG, you pick the time you feel the generator is on a long streak of high rolls and hope it doesn’t drop low any time soon, is all there is. It is still a 50% bet because out of any possible time to upgrade (over a day, a week, a month, whatever doesn’t matter) 50% of them will randomly fail, but you may have picked the safe time. :wink:

Or just be rich and do upgrade on multiple copies of the same gear, to eventually get one right…

6 Likes
#104

can you prove it?
no