Dear imc i am dead in rng velco rapier

[Neiru]

The problem is not in the 51% vs 49% chances of a success but in how people underestimate the power of a streak of luck and unluckiness. That is why some people get 6 or more streak of fails and some even reach +40 or more with only a minimal loss in their potential.

There’s a good video explaining how Streak works.

I am in no way defending IMC. I also want to upgrade my gears and turn them into shiny without the fear of destroying them or rendering them useless… They really opt to streamline this mechanic like how they did transcendence where people pay more to increase the likelihood of a success they also need to cap their upgrade levels to a minimum so everyone has a somewhat fair advantage overall specially on pvp and gvg scenario.

[Ennislol]

Yeah, it’s why this anvil and potential system is a dumb system. Especially one where there’s no fail stacks, or a way to replenish potential, and where you literally lose the item if fail enough.

It’s incredibly punishing, unnecessarily so.

[HueMeAllNightLong]

1 1 1
1 1 0
1 0 1
0 1 1
1 0 0
0 1 0
0 0 1
0 0 0

In a 50% world each of these scenarios has the same chance of happening.

The problem is another one.

Law of large numbers

As you approach large numbers, you can have huge streaks of successes or failures.

[myself]

TL;DR you cant guarantee what is the result of your anvil, only predict with more than 0% margin of error

[Aoi_Kanashi]

even in engineering, the calculation of probabilities doesn’t guarantee anything other than a more accurate prediction.

me? i just +7 or 8 my quips Owo and leave everything to trans owO

[Umineko]

I’m happy that I can just exchange the failed velco stuff to a two-handed T10 weapon with re:build and use that.
+6 T10 two-handed weapon is still better than +16 one-handed after all.

The best thing about that is that you don’t need a shield anymore in Re:build because monster dmg is crap and block no longer negates getting hit anyway.

afterwards I can always work towards that +16 one-hand mace without pressure since my two-handed mace got me covered until then, and even once I reach that point, I can still switch between the two weapons for a damage boost.

The one thing one can’t miss for Re:build is the point where you get your initial gears right (velco armors and ichors via the current event). After that it will be easy to work towards a new T10 weapon anyway with doubled gain from gem feud and saalus.

Even if the trans event is over after 7 weeks, you only need to farm shards/gems for about 1,5 months to make a new Velcoffer weapon T10.

[TeamGalatic]

Well i couldn’t sleep well today.
I would say i become too emo anytime i enhance something and it make me depressed after that. This picture can describe “Humans are bad at probability”.

I could blame myself that why i was so stupid in my action or i should use other weapons to have more steak fail then back to my velco or something.

[myself]

what will happen if two people hit their own anvil at exact time? will it yield the same result?

[Umineko]

That’s because the true nature of probability is not taught to students in math class.

Probability is nothing but a partial truth. truth is 100% while a part of that is the probability of something being true.
This is also how Schroedingers Cat is dead and alive at the same time, because both are equally true as probabilities (i.e. parts of truth).

As “everything is relative in this world”, there is no certainty on the normal levels (except for machine language where you can temper with probabilities and truths as you like it), so truth will always be the sum of all possible scenarios.

what will happen if two people hit their own anvil at exact time

doesn’t matter, as the outcome is determined at the time the anvil is placed down, not the time the anvil is hit.

[myself]

then is it proven if two anvil put down at exact same time will yield same result no matter when you hit it? because this is the first time i hear that, not even crevox ever mentioned it

[Remiri]

No. Each anvil is independent of the other. While the outcome may be determined at the placement of the anvil, this doesn’t mean all anvils placed down at the same time will have the same result.

[myself]

then how do we know the result is determined by WHEN the anvil placed if we have no way to check it in game? is it written plainly in the code?

[thepurpleknightmare]

It’s probably better you don’t know the chance of +11. It’s not 51%, 51% is the chance of getting from +5-6 and for the record I have a Solmiki top that has failed to go past 6 forever, made it to +4, 6-10 times already.

It’s early in the morning and so I probably lost track but your chance of getting +11 without losing a potential assuming I put the right amount of numbers into the calculator and it’s 51% chance each time is about 1.75% chance. Now you do get 7-15 failures and in those cases they simultaneous increase and decrease your chances in a way that I don’t know how to calculate this early in the morning, but the odds are never in your favor, 51% is just a joke, a scam. They’re trolling you yo. Nobody makes games for the purposes of fun or competition, nobody is trying to please the players or get the most amount of players playing their game.

They all just want money, any trick they can do to extort whatever they can out of you, then ofc you have the idiots who join up with these greedy bastards and they just want to piss you off.

And that’s every developer ever btw, scamming, creating dependency and addiction, extortion and really trying to make players mad.

[kaizaxl]

Math really is not easy.

[Remiri]

Now you do get 7-15 failures and in those cases they simultaneous increase and decrease your chances in a way that I don’t know how to calculate this early in the morning, but the odds are never in your favor, 51% is just a joke, a scam. They’re trolling you yo. Nobody makes games for the purposes of fun or competition, nobody is trying to please the players or get the most amount of players playing their game.

They all just want money, any trick they can do to extort whatever they can out of you, then ofc you have the idiots who join up with these greedy bastards and they just want to piss you off.

fuckin magnets, how do they work

[Umineko]

It’s probably better you don’t know the chance of +11. It’s not 51%, 51% is the chance of getting from +5-6 and for the record I have a Solmiki top that has failed to go past 6 forever, made it to +4, 6-10 times already.

Good thing you only need +6 for Re:build (unless you’re overachieving) in case of a T10-armor.

The difference for legendary armor between +6 and +11 is 6,45% on the dominant and 12,2% on the recessive defensive stat (so +12,2% for both stats on leather).

The difference for legendary armor between +6 and +16 is 14,34% on the dominant and 27,11% on the recessive defensive stat (so 27,11% for both stats on leather).

This means the best you can get on the weakest armor set (i.e. leather) is +12,2% for +11 and +27,11% for +16 in comparison to +6.

Of course, one can boost that difference (e.g. Nuaele/Zaura cards, Barrier/Hard Shield) by adding another factor to the calculation, but these are specific and few examples out of a pool of many builds/equipment choices, so one must calculate if the risk of trashing your gear is worth the small possible boost.

Imo +8/+9 is enough and very likely on armor, so the first goal should be hitting these values to lessen the difference between +11/+16 gear without trashing it (i.e. you got potentials anyway,so why not use them for a few extra defense; +9 is already at 45% of what +11 gives over +6, reducing the advantage of +11 to a maximum of 6,7% more defense for leather armor).

[Jiyuu]

then how do we know the result is determined by WHEN the anvil placed if we have no way to check it in game? is it written plainly in the code?

How do we know?
afaik. Server side, IMCRandom.

because this is the first time i hear that, not even crevox ever mentioned it

RNG Anvil, is per hit or per anvil guys?

When you place the anvil down, the success or failure is determined immediately.

Need more sauce from crev?

https://forum.treeofsavior.com/search?q=%40crevox%20anvil&skip_context=true

Anvil exploit exposed in Ktos, possibly used within ITos as well

The anvil decides whether or not it’s going to succeed immediately upon being placed. If it will be a failure, it decides which hit will be the failure at random. It doesn’t matter if you exceed these hits by using a multihit attack, the anvil is still going to fail.

RNG Anvil, is per hit or per anvil guys?

When you place the anvil down, the success or failure is determined immediately. If it’s decided to be a failure, then it will fail on a random hit (1, 2, or 3). It was already decided to be a failure, and like mentioned above, this is purely cosmetic/for flavor/fluff. I believe in a future update they are removing this so it will only ever fail on the third hit, but I’m not 100% certain.

(I am not misunderstood the question, right?)

[myself]

ah, i see. I didnt read that post, my mistake

[merrieta01]

8 Fails in a row and stops because the item can’t go low than 5 XD