Well i can say that i am dying with my pain after my 6th velcoffer rapier broken without any pass + 11. PLS IMC FIX THAT STUPID RNG. HOW CAN 51% HAVE STREAK 6 FAILED IN TIME??? it make me wanna quit game for sure. So sad…
my advise is dont be obsessed by shiny effect! your velco is already stronger than most 380 shiny orange weapon
you used all your luck on your +22 primus rapier. thats why.
Hard to say i want it shiny because i can’t ever surpass + 11
Baka Pen. Do you know the reason why that primus +22? Because i failed velco +4 pot 0 before it. And now i become dead body without motivation in this game
still better than me, had shiny weapon prepared to be trade at rebuild but forced to uninstall the game by my wife 
1 Like
That’s good for you. You won’t feel any problem with healthy for this game.
Because in the aggregate you will see streaks all the time, sometimes very long ones. You also get streaks in the other direction, where everything seems to succeed, no matter what you do. But you don’t really think about those much, and you certainly wouldn’t complain about them.
These are called averages.
I’ve never seen a +22 in my 3 years of playing, and I’ve had plenty of failures, but I was happy one of my Velco weapons made it to +17, and is the only one (of many) that did. Doesn’t that mean that because you got a +22, you’re luckier than me?
1 Like
Learn the mathematic of probability, it’ll help a lot.
for every failure the chance of success gets higher and higher.
throw the failure to trash item.
so for example, for every 5 consecutive fail on any other item, upgrade your velco.
remember, keyword is “consecutive”. there could be no breaks of success in between.
this is just simple math, not the sacrifice stuff myth. just math.
edit: this is just how i would do it, i don’t advise anyone to think the same.
i am a simple man, i see anvil i clicked it, not thinking anything. if it is destined to be +16, it will! if not then, well…
This is not the way RNG works. Flipping a coin and getting heads doesn’t increase the chance of getting tails next time. Random is random, every roll is completely independent of other rolls.
While 6 weapons in a row that didn’t get to +11 is extremely unlikely to happen, even if true, it’s not a good decision. It’s significantly cheaper and less effort to simply Golden Anvil the first one you ever failed up to +11 instead of going for another one, if you only need +11. You claim you made it to +10 as well, which is not a significant difference from +11, and you could’ve worked on Golden Anvils later if you really cared to get to +11 instead of getting rid of an entire legendary weapon for a single plus. +10 is not a big enough difference from +11 to spend over 100 million in an entire new rapier, let alone multiple times. On top of all this, legendary items are being buffed in Re:Build significantly, with a +0 legendary rapier being better than a +16 Primus… any amount of plus is likely worth taking and transcending.
I would hope that if you even made the decision to get rid of these rapiers, you at least sold them on the market to recoup cost, as there would be people who would buy them simply to Golden Anvil them up to +11 themselves. The alternative would be to wait for Re:Build, as that + matters even less in Re:Build due to the enhancement being less relative in ATK compared to the base ATK of the weapon, and you would be getting a potential back for free to try another anvil.
There may be a fair amount of RNG in this game, and sometimes you can get unlucky, but more often than not there are multiple ways to manipulate a situation to your advantage. There are better and worse ways to deal with failures and success, and being smart about your items and how you spend your money greatly mitigates the brunt of a “failure.” In this case, if you truly did try to upgrade six different rapiers, I’d highly advise reevaluating how you’re doing this.
7 Likes
yep it is random. and it is always random
it’s just that the chance of getting heads 7 times in a row is really really slim
8 times? even slimmer, 9 times? even slimmer
the RNG system itself is unaffected, nothing happens in the system that helps anviling that is 100% completely true.
but in terms of mathematics, betting that you will get a head after 5+ more times getting tails will more likely gets you head instead of betting head everytime.
this is in my line of work, that i work with probability, so i really understand this and what you are saying.
it is always random and no factor can change it, but random hitting the same thing over and over and over is just getting more and more impossible for every permutation.
2 Likes
This, I’ve been buying cheap failures off guildies to golden anvil all mine for alts.
Just make sure you leave room for sockets. No one wants to buy a “cheap” bricked weapon and then have to spend 50m on just a socket (more now, probably) and then another like 20m to actually use the socket.
2 Likes
to reiterate i completely agree that every roll is independent of the other roll.
but the math stays the same, if there is a completely 50 : 50 chance of getting either A or B, the chance of getting A A A A A A A A is very slim and even more after that.
Well, the very thing you linked proves your thoughts on the matter incorrect.
No one knows when the regression to mean will happen. It could be 10 failures, it could be 100, it could be 1000. There are thousands of anvils hit in Tree of Savior every week. There is no telling when a streak will end, and of course the chances get slimmer. But the idea that "I just failed 5 times in a row, the next one is bound to succeed is also the same reason why IMC makes so much money off idiots on gachas. The same fallacy applies. How many cubes are you going to buy before you don’t get a sled–from what I understand a few people spent way more than $1k trying.
6 Likes
alright then. i know this adds nothing to my argument but i succeeded +16 on my second weapon ever after applying the rule.
and my friend also gets her weapon to +13 as of now but she’s afraid to continue.
i read the article you gave me, and i see your point. but i believe the system and it worked out for me. i guess i should not advise people to do the same then, that’s just how i would do it.
edited the original post as per new information laid out in this forum.
1 Like
I don’t think you understand math. Each anvil is independent of the previous. You’re flipping a coin essentially for each anvil. It doesn’t matter if you’ve failed or succeeded on the previous anvil.
you came way too late.
1 Like
The problem is not in the 51% vs 49% chances of a success but in how people underestimate the power of a streak of luck and unluckiness. That is why some people get 6 or more streak of fails and some even reach +40 or more with only a minimal loss in their potential.
There’s a good video explaining how Streak works.
I am in no way defending IMC. I also want to upgrade my gears and turn them into shiny without the fear of destroying them or rendering them useless… They really opt to streamline this mechanic like how they did transcendence where people pay more to increase the likelihood of a success they also need to cap their upgrade levels to a minimum so everyone has a somewhat fair advantage overall specially on pvp and gvg scenario.
1 Like
Yeah, it’s why this anvil and potential system is a dumb system. Especially one where there’s no fail stacks, or a way to replenish potential, and where you literally lose the item if fail enough.
It’s incredibly punishing, unnecessarily so.
1 Like