40% isnt a huge success. they will get a big burst of money at the start but the pl who paid wont buy anything frm cash shop. then the 60% will most likely not come back in june. only about 10% of the people from early access will stay ( about 200)
soooo… 200+600 (people that 60%) +500 (newcomers who will stay in mmorpgs for a few months, wont play for a week or two then leave) =1300 players. that is most likely gonna be the outcome. only about 900 will pay atleast 50 dollars in cash shop so 45000$. plus the burst of money they get when founderes pack is 51000$.
if they release it nowww
100% of players on forums will play - 8000 players (?)
about 4000 will stay+800 newcomers (newcomers wil not hear about founderers pack and will not think its p2w so there wiill be more newcomers) = 4800 players ( 3,500 more players)
about 1800 will spend atleast 50 dollars so 90000$.
this isnt straight statistics but it would be proportional to the real data.
plus imc future games wont succeed