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Now tell me sir that ‘‘hate’’ ( <- negative) who is being negative here?
I just base my skeptical view on my experience while i tried my fair share of upgrading in this game.
being skeptical is not the same as negativity. It’s just not very nice to put words in others mouth or you might be the one that is negative towards others.
ok
/20charaspdogaphsdggaspdg
Whether or not OP’s brother was cheating is able to be proven, though, because even if they have difficulty proving an item is exploited, they can very easily tell if an item has been legitimately crafted (i.e. it leveled up in times where no crashes/rollbacks ever occurred at all. Like item was upgraded at 8:05, 8:06, 11:23, two weeks later at 2:55 etc etc, and no server outages happened at or around any of those times, so on and so on).
OP I wouldn’t get rid of the item and I’d advise your brother to not sell it. Keep it as a trophy if nothing else. After IMC finds and bans the exploiters appropriately then your brother can shout the item every day if he likes as a testament to his innocence, perseverance, luck, and the overall badassery of the item itself.
Unless of course your brother is banned because even coincidentally upgrading an item around the exact times of channel crashes would make anyone squint kind of hard. But rest assured, if he’s innocent, then they can at least prove that much; even if they can’t quite prove yet if an exploited item was exploited or not. But the legit ones should be easy to spot on their end.
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I’m going to test and record to discover how “easy” it is to get a +15 in one of these day’s. I will upload and share it on the forum.
https://forum.treeofsavior.com/t/the-road-to-a-perfect-legit-15-test/316773
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+15 with 1 potential lost… how hard can it be
You talk like you have a Statistics PhD or something. Unfortunately this isn’t even about Statistics. It’s basic Probability. bart.nikkelen was right when he said that with a 0.48% probability of enhancing to +15 with no failure, on average 1 out of every 209 people trying to do so will succeed. I see nothing wrong with that statement. Just an application of expectation.
I don’t know why you go around bashing every valid statement about probability or statistics, but please do not try to make weird claims about the discipline. You just end up looking stupid to people who actually know what they’re talking about.
I did get a perfect +10 grand cross about 2 weeks ago. I litteraly had an awesome lucky moment. I wasn’t even trying, I just decided to spend all the money I could into getting a good gc, cause i would be able to use it forever anyway, but then i got to +10 and i decided it was worth stopping. Then I just put some gems on it and it was perfect. I know a lot of exploiters are around, but since it’s a metter of luck, it is possible to get to perfect +15 somehow. So, I don’t know exactly how, but IMC must develop some system to stop this bugs, cause legit honest players are already getting hostilized for achieving an awesome item like this, for people think they’re exploiting, and this sucks. Lucky me I don’t ever want to sell my gc. (except maybe when i get a didel).
One guy just post a vídeo where he fails 17 times to get one weapon to +14. That why people don’t believe on “so lucky people”. Especially where is assumed there is exploit to do it.
Someone above calculated that you need ~209 GCs in average for a perfect +15. I’m pretty sure that during TOSs lifespan more than 209 GCs have been created/dropped and upgraded as high as possible. Thus, odds are quite good that a perfect +15 GC exists.
Then these people are idiots. These people have no understanding of how luck or probability work. That’s like saying “I didn’t manage to roll a 6 in 10 tries. Because i know it is possible to cheat while rolling dice and because i did not manage to roll a 6 in 10 tries that means if you manage to roll a 6 in one try i dont believe that you are not cheating”.
Exactly. Glad to see you are capable of repeating the point I made.
Probability is no different from guessing. Guessing has no role in programming. Either it’s possible or it’s not. If you want to know which one, you’d have to ask IMC, but I doubt they would answer that question for you.
Do you stalk me or something? Or am I special enough to be noticed by you.
I’m not sure how you can claim them to be valid if you don’t even know the purpose of these two.
What’s wrong with this, is that you are applying a theoretical approach to something that is purely practical. The actual occurances of successfully upgrading arent chance or guesswork, they are hardcoded into the programming.
My, arent we arrogant. You must consider all your school taught knowledge (that will be obsolete, sooner or later) to be very important indeed.
Yet you dont have any clue what I’m talking about. I guess you don’t understand as well as you would like to think.
I just want you to know that I find your reasoning laughable enough to mock you, but sufficiently inconsistent and nonsensical to make the idea of trying to disentangle it an unjustifiable waste of my personal time. The phrase “herculean task” springs to mind.
If you feel a little tiny bit bad about yourself for a split second, that’s all I wanted.
Carry on with your sweet, warbling bird-song!
That requires you to actually transfer a measure of understanding where previously I had none.
I think that task might be too daunting. But I welcome you to try, its always a pleasure to learn from others.
Or to see others are capable of learning, and more importantly understanding.
Besides humor me. I did disentangle and respond to that overly large sentence of yours. Why it’s even longer then mine.
ps: Its no fair if you write it in a way that’s so easy to understand.
Now I cant silently laugh at you for saying ‘‘you make no sense’’ when you dont make any sense either, as I do with everyone else that tries to argue like that with me. 
Make less sense, silly!
cant thats the point
Rofl, what the ■■■■ are you talking about? The entire basis of the enhancement system runs on probability. “Probability is no different from guessing” is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard. Guessing means you don’t have any data to work with. If you know nothing about how enhancing works in ToS you could guess that it only went as high as +10 and that +10 was nearly impossible. But since we have data on how it actually works, we don’t have ot make that guess, we can calculate the probability of it actually occuring. “Guessing [probability] has no role in programming. Either it’s possible or it’s not,” I mean, are you even thinking about what you’re typing? You’re either really confused on how probability works or you’re really confused on how programming works. The only way probability has no role in programming is if your game uses no forms of randomness whatsoever, which is obviously far from the truth with ToS.
Edit:
Oh okay, so it’s programming you have no grasp of. The way you lay this out that enhancement probability is not actually up to chance but in fact ‘hardcoded into the programming’ makes it seem like your verison of the game is some Korean programmer typing up code like “if (# of weapons enhanced) = 209 then +15 else fail” which is obviously wrong and retarded.
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Are you perhaps aware of '‘Paradigms’'
It is notoriously hard to break through an existing, large spread paradigm. The responses to my post are evident of this.
You are so ingrained to think in a certain way, that you cant see its the base of your knowledge that is flawed.
Even if I would agree with you on something, because you are now triggered to defend your ‘‘core knowledge’’, you wouldnt accept that.
You are going to have to go all out on programming knowledge if you want to use that as a good argument, I’m afraid.
Question of the topic has nothing to do with chance. Only if it’s possible to reach +15 without potential loss.
And that is hard coded into the programming, yes.
Ofcourse it’s entirely possible they didnt code failsafes or limits. But you’ll have to excuse me if I wont accuse them of being worse then a high-school coder. Even if it is IMC we are talking about.
Probability is guessing. While laziness or a lack of resources invites ‘developers’ to use less controlled coding, it’s not by any means ideal or wanted in coding. Or math.
Why? Because for thing, it lacks accuracy, and without failsafes or limits in place, there’s absolutely no certainty you can gain from using it.
Those failsafes in the code, they are what ensures whether or not (in this case) + 15 without potential loss is possible.
And you know, in coding where you dont want to cause bugs or errors, and math where you dont want to cause construction flaws or catastrophies:
That’s kind of a big deal.
You can’t get an infinite 50% chance successes.
Because if you did, it would no longer be 50% chance for success, would it?
Oh? If its just a randomly calculated number, pray tell:
How exactly does it know when to have that chance occur? Why would a chance of 1 in a million occur once in a million if…its randomly decided?
Oh I’m well aware of the (lazy or resource lacking) ways that code use random numbers.
But the question then remains, what is the difference between a 40% chance and an 80% chance if they are both equally random.
And if they arent both equally random, then jolly. Its almost like theres something hardcoded to prevent that from being the case.
That is why I dislike it when people mention probability, chance, or random in MMOs/games.
[Random] is no different from [cannot be calculated]
What matters isnt
[quote]
OMG I LOVE my MATH UH OH OH Probability YEAH UHN CHANCE, OOOHHH][/quote]
What matters is the coding that’s in place in (this) game. What failsafes, IE how many chains of 50% successes are actually possible.
If it even decides that or whether it simply calculates 50% and doesnt discriminate who it calculates that chance for.
In the latter case, since success and failure is randomly distributed, one might wonder how the server side 50% is at all the same as the completely random client side 50%.
You were right I was getting carried away, as so often (if a bit more then most topics). Altho I forgot to say it in my last post, thanks for the reminder. 
tl;dr for @SlyGoat
Hur Hur chance.
Noone that can think for themselves gives a damn about that. People want to know if something is possible, and what it would take if yes. Oh you might get a +15 right away. Or maybe in 18 attemps.
That’s pretty vague. But its still a hell of a lot more useful then:
It’s 50% chance to succeed past +9. So whether you succeed from that point onward is 0.5^6 /kappa
Because yeah, that’s some pretty meaningless numbers in practice.
We already knew it was possible, since you know, someone bothered to try it. Altho I dont think that was ever up to debate to begin with.
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What the ■■■■ did I even just read? You didn’t need all that text to say “I don’t understand math or programming,” you just needed 6 words.
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got my ice rod +10 without losing any potential legitimately,i am hacker now??lol
however those +25 equips we see…i too doubt it
I just saw your comment. So I need to remind you that my brother fails many time to do that.(than he just sold the fails one before it gos 1 potantial.) And if that not your lucky moment you will end up broke the item for just +6 or +7 repeatedly. My brother didn’t suceed the +15 Perfect GC for just one or two days. He try it for one or two week coz he have me to support him. Please beware to lost your big Million Silvers.
He told me he +13 +14 +15 witout re-login but he can’t remamber he continuous or wait a moment.(coz he siad +14 and +15 couse a lot of money and he may went to sell his items for that.
For my opinion. It’s about timming. If that moment you can do it you will always succeed but if that moment you can’t you will always fail. So if you fail just stop for a moment than comeback later. And if you succeed you can do it again repeatable. At least, it’s what my brother did and succeed the +15 one
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