Tree of Savior Forum

Steam Active User Stats

General Discussion
#1

DISCLAIMER: Obviously, with only 1 week of data, it can be inaccurate to extrapolate, which is why I’ll continue updating this post as new data become available.

Steam peak users per day for ToS (data on concurrent users @ 13:00 hours each day)

For the linear fits: y is the number of active users @ 13:00 and x is consecutive days. Projections based on the previous weekly linear model will be denoted with “[ ? ]”

DISCLAIMER 2: Projections especially based on linear trends will likely be highly inaccurate. It is nonetheless interesting to see whether a simple linear model might have predictive power for ToS active user trends. Trend predictions will be crossed out and updated with an +/- error and actual value when new data are available.

Usage Stats Source

Week ~1 of ToS (Founders):

SAT 4/02/2016 33437
SUN 4/03/2016 31023
MON 4/04/2016 27172
TUE 4/05/2016 28953
WED 4/06/2016 26793
THU 4/07/2016 26392
FRI 4/08/2016 26304

Linear fit for Week 1: y = -1108.6x + 5E7 (R^2=0.767)

Week ~2 of ToS (Founders):

SAT 4/09/2016 [25195?] 29950 (underestimate by 4755) this number is prior to the server issues
SUN 4/10/2016 [24086?] 29804 (underestimate by 5718)
MON 4/11/2016 [22977?] 24359 (underestimate by 1382)
TUE 4/12/2016 [21868?] 24055 (underestimate by 2187)
WED 4/13/2016 [20769?] 21869 (underestimate by 1100)
THU 4/14/2016 [19650?] N/A (Servers were down @ 13:00)
FRI 4/15/2016 [18541?] 21460 (underestimate by 2919)

Linear fit for Week 2:

Week ~3 of ToS (Founders):

SAT 4/16/2016 24600
SUN 4/17/2016
MON 4/18/2016
TUE 4/19/2016
WED 4/20/2016
THU 4/21/2016
FRI 4/22/2016

Generally for other games, you see a spike of user activity corresponding to Friday and Saturday, with a decrease on Sunday and a huge decrease on Mondays. Then, lull in user activity around Tuesday/Wednesday but building back up on Thursday. Basically looks like a parabola. The point is that usually linear fits don’t work well and result in R^2 values under ~0.3 for most other games. It’s interesting that there is such a high R^2 for ToS.

What does it mean? It’s perhaps too early to conclude, so stay tuned for next week I guess!

11 Likes
#2

Keep up the good work.

+1 :heart:

#3

This makes me so happy. IMC has failed as company, they’ve ignored popular feedback and they deserve what they get at this point. White Knights and IMC can continue to ignore the facts, but i hope they continue to spend tons of money in this game, or else their single-player experience will end pretty soon.

They should teach “what not to do with your customers 101”

#4

Well… it’s 1 week of data, it’s a worrying trend, but we’ll have to collect more data to see…

It’s a bit weird that in the first ~1-2 weeks that the number of users isn’t rising more through the week, but there could be a number of factors at play.

#5

To be fair, i’m sure users were just on the “i must try it” hype as soon as the p2p server opened, and that should die down after a few days (deflating the number), I obviously expect them to go up again once the F2P goes live (obviously); but I do expect the the ultimate trend to be downward until the game dies. But that trend should really only be obvious after a month or 2.

#6

Oooo to be the first person who gets there hands on those server files. :heart_eyes:

#7

Well, I’ll keep updating until I get sick of imc/ToS. So we’ll see :open_mouth:

#8

Hmm seems like interest has been getting lower but its too early to judge besides this is still early access… Would actually see how it fares during F2P.

1 Like
#9

Nice work. This is really important data, and I hope IMC has their eyes open to it. Hopefully people’s complains keep translating into negative numbers until they either change their monetization strategy. Or at least go bankrupt and close doors, that would at least protect the gaming market from IMC’s toxic strategies.

#10

Well you know…

There is a certain nymph daughter of oceanus and mother of Io, Phoroneus, and Phegeus.

#11

Well done I guess, I’d be more surprised if they didn’t have this data on hand.

@Chronosanct How does this compare to post-launch week numbers for other MMOs?

Errrr… While they are arguably dragging their feet on the issue of trade and economy - Regional pricing, 3 month founders, GMs, spawn rates are issues that they’ve responded to handily enough. What other popular feedback is there that has been ignored?

edit: spawn rates & tag

1 Like
#12

Ya. Week one after launch, and you come up with a statistic comparing ToS to games that have been released months ago. Good job.

1 Like
#13

Yes… hence the disclaimer at the top of the post…

#14

One factor here that hasn’t been mentioned, is IMC banning Bots & Gold Spammer left and right.

We have zero idea on how many they banned so far. Not to mention how many gold seller have given up selling in this game.

In addition to the bugs/lag of the early days, I would argue that those data are not showing anything relevant at this point in time.

That being said, in the coming weeks/months after the F2P launch. these data will start holding merits. At least once the early bandwagon is gone and that a more stable player base is established.

Look at any recent Online Game data and you will see a massive spike in the early days and a huge decline in the early weeks/months.

1 Like
#15

Although you data is interesting and I love this kind of posts, it’s expected to the number of players remain somehow the same until next month, even the decrease is expected, they are the ppl that got the game unknowing that was still on Beta.

I woundn’t read too much on this, we will need to see how the F2P launch goes.

TL;DR

A set number of players got the DLC and most if not all play the game from day 1 to make more use of their money, so playerbase isn’t expect to grow until F2P release. Decrease number of active players is also expected due Bugs/Misinformation/Servers.

The game still incomplete and most like will se a growth in terms of Playerbase only when Servers are fixed or they release Regional Servers, and the Beta test is over. Until that, this is expected.

PS: What mislead the players was the Paid OBT that created a sensation of ownership + the feeling that the game was in a “playable” state rather than a testing phase.

#16

Interesting but still a bit early. Perhaps the interest from launch is winding down and we’re hitting a more sustainable amount of user activity. Since we had the patch on the 4th that would explain the resurgence on the 5th. It made the servers stable enough to play for extended periods.

#17

Unfortunately steam stats compresses and subsamples data on older user stats for other mmos. This was the comparison I was actually most interested in. Maybe if someone finds that info…

1 Like
#18

Is this your first MMO launch? There is always a massive drop of players after the first few weeks. Always. People trying the game, realizing it’s not their thing, not liking the company, the cash shop isn’t appealing, lots of things. There’s always a drop

2 Likes
#19

As stated, this will be an ongoing project. The problem is that everyone has intuitions. Sometimes those intuitions are right and sometimes they are very wrong. Having empirical data never hurts.

5 Likes
#20

This guy disagree.