Tree of Savior Forum

Silver anvil helped me out

Should had say most, those mystery one I did turn them in.

lol from the sounds of it you’re quite lucky :confounded:

How much potential do you think is a good idea to stop? I not sure what should I do with my last 3 potential now. Got a few golden anvil, but I don’t think I should waste them yet.

In a true RNG, no that’s not true. Luck would be luck. I can flip a coin and get 4 heads in a row even if I had 50% chance to get tails.

By your logic, we should expect a success after a series of failure then?

What do you mean stop? Mean stop for that day? If you have 3 or minimum 2 failures already. Stop for that day. You are messing with real life universal law of chance here. …in which it has nothing to do with the game mechanic. It is your pure irl luck…

Yeah could be that.

He just seems defensive when I simply stated that I don’t believe his explanation was the case. XD

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Woops, should have state my question clearer, I mean how much potential should we reserve for our weapon? I don’t plan to sold it, since I don’t think anyone will want to buy a low potential weapon.

Yes, we are talking in a true RNG.

I can flip a coin and get 4 heads in a row even if I had 50% chance to get tails.

Did I say you can’t? Or did I say you are more likely to fail?

Seems like you didn’t check what I linked, so have this to help you:

The chance to keep getting the same thing once again is lower the more you keep getting it, in reality it is still the same chance, but in overall its less due to being successive tries.

It seems like you somehow read “having lower chance to get something again” as “impossible”, but you are still implying it is the same chance as getting success from 1st try as getting success 100 time in a row, which is clearly not equal.

What do you mean stop? Mean stop for that day? If you have 3 or minimum
2 failures already. Stop for that day. You are messing with real life
universal law of chance here. …

I agree, either you do it successively or don’t do it.

You probably didn’t understand it either.

The math theories people in these forums come up with never cease to amaze me.

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I bet you don’t even know what we are talking about here :joy:

0 potential my friend
Oh save 1 for awKening and another one for trancendence…

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Explain that to the people who won the lottery with just one ticket and having bought it the first time, and to the people who’ve been hoping to win for years, buying multiple tickets at a time.

Thanks, never know transcendence also need to have potential.
Guess I’m down to my last chance lol.:sweat_smile:

The chance of getting the same outcome in a coin toss multiple times in a row is the same as getting every other specific sequence …

Getting head three times: 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5
Getting head - tail - head: 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5
Getting head - head - tail: 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5

Don’t bother, the guy doesn’t want to be questioned or doubted. :joy:

Listen, I stated the facts above, if you refuse logic or how things work, its your own problem, I will not bother explaining further.

Also, changing from a 50% 50% situation to a 0.0000000000000001% situation doesn’t prove you are right, its just that those people didn’t buy enough lottery tickets to have the maximum chance possible, if they bought all the lottery tickets on earth they would have won obviously, but because they didn’t, one person in the world had to randomly get that one winning ticket.

Don’t bother, the guy doesn’t want to be questioned or doubted.

Its because you had the facts in front of you that are clearly not questionable, not as if I made the theory myself just to convince you.

This is why people find maths hard it seems, well, have fun with your +4 then.

Except that you are more likely to get “a random sequence among the other sequences” than one specific sequence, which is head-head-head in our case (if head equals success in our situation).

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I envy you, you have so much extra time in your hands to waste explaining things to random strangers in the internet. XD

Somewhere in your responses you just contradicted your earlier replies. I won’t point it out. I presume you’re smart enough to notice it, what with your Math knowledge and sources.

Happy hunting! :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

All of these specific sequences have the same likelihood to happen.

Coin tosses are independent as are upgrades ingame. It doesn’t matter if you had a success or a failure before since success-> fail and success-> success have (almost, since it’s 51% afaik) the same probability.

Read all of that site that you linked again. And not just the parts that fit your weird theory.

As I said earlier:

Of course it can still fail, but the chance to fail 4
times in a row with 50% success chance is very low, and if it happens
you can’t really do much about it, at least 2~3 fails were on something
that doesn’t matter much.

You’re not cheating the system by following this, the success chance to enhance afterwards is still 51%, but theorycrafting, if you want to be “less likely to fail on something that cost a lot”, you’d rather fail on something that doesn’t cost a lot.

The chance to get head head head is the same as any other sequence true, but the chance to get head head head is not the same chance as getting (head+tail+head and head+tail+tail and tail+tail+tail etc…) combined.

And I know what I’m saying, I read that site I linked years ago, this is not a magical solution or cheating the game’s mechanics, but we all know the chance to get head+head+head+head from the start is not 50%, and you can result in other sequences that include tail, which in our case equals failure.

As we know that the chance to get head+head+head+head is 6.25%, if you end up reaching head+head+head, you would know you are less likely overall to get tails, but in reality we know that the chance is independent and is actually still 50% to get heads, but if you are realistic enough, you would believe that you cannot keep getting the same result forever in a 50% chance coin toss, in which case I would rather try enhancing something else until I fail twice consecutively with the same odds then try again.

As I said, this doesn’t change the odds to succeed in one enhancement, it is still RNG, and it will forever be, but it is still somewhat safer in this game, coming from facts, but you can call it a way to “feel better about yourself”, I personally wouldn’t risk enhancing once again after succeeding 3~5 times in a row still .

TL;DR: It doesn’t boost your luck, but it evens the odds of a normal 100 coin toss that should result in an average of 50 head 50 tail result.

But the system doesn’t remember your earlier tries, they are independent events.

No matter if you failed on something else in between, the chance on your next try is still 51%.

Since when did I say it makes the enhancement chance more than what it actually is?

I might have said “more likely” but it was in theory crafting, in case of successive tries, you are not messing with the system or with the coding, you are messing with luck.

Why? Because if you throw infinite coins you should get 50% of the results as heads and 50% of the results as tail, however, you cannot throw an infinite amount of coins, but any high amount of coins is enough to prove that the average result should still be the same.

In our case, what we want to do is even the odds of failing with succeeding.

Unless you expect it to be absolutely normal and common for people to aim for a perfect +5->+15 or higher without failing.

You can’t mess with a system that is based on luck.

But hey, I’ll give up on this conversation now, do it your way if it “makes you feel better”, there is a reason why people believe in weird rituals, it fits our human brain even it it makes no sense, that’s how humans are wired.