Tree of Savior Forum

Prinny Polling Predictions: Preliminary analysis of ToS token trends

Thank you for taking the time to read the opening thread and not only that but comprehending it on such a deep level. :slight_smile:

Listen I will be honest I didn’t read any of it nor do I care to read it I got real sick of reading these threads about tokens but what I posted wrong tho? Thread after thread about tokens this tokens that just PLAY THE FREAKING GAME!!! make memories out of the game thats what games are for but everyone is just freaking out because of some advantage it isnt like WOE is in the game and PVP is a freaking joke from what I have read.

Like seriously where does everyone think the company is going to get the money to support this game? money don’t grow on trees.

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Yes, it is likely wrong (in my opinion). That is why I collected data from polling and wrote this thread. Please read it. Thank you.

What if I told you that this might not be reasonably possible in 6 months to a year? Are you curious why? Good, go read the post. Thank You.

If you have some methodological critiques or would like to talk about flaws in assumptions, I would be more than happy to talk about those things. I’m not saying I’m absolutely right or that what I predict is 100% certain. I’m just saying I see a lot of red flags and that what I predict has (I think) a pretty good chance of happening.

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I replied to shadeborn

Might have been a little off topic from the OP, but I was pointing out it gives an advantage compared to other new players, but not so much compared to everyone else. It would be just a way to make it easier to catch up. I mean in the future though when tokens are out of new players reach in price when they start.

I do think new players should by extra tokens though. One to activate and maybe an extra one to sell if they can get some extra silver out of it and need it. I’ll be doing that and im a new player :slight_smile: We are all pretty much new since the servers arent even open yet. regardless of how much we played in the CBT

Please don’t enter into threads just to flame. If you don’t want to read it don’t enter other people’s thread.

Yea they grow from debt.

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Fixed, huehuehue xD

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market is dynamic, people join, people leave, people buy, people sell, people change mind within fraction of second

if you can predict market chaos, great for you. its your edge to take advantages.

you’re very welcome, i know you can’t do it without me.

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Um… don’t you think the long term health of the subscriber and F2P player bases is important for the longevity of this game?

That’s what I worry about for many many paragraphs in this thread.

I appreciate your thread here, trying to change things, but I don’t think IMC is really going for the longevity, based on their actions.

They are showing all the signs of just wanting to suck out all the money that they can, while the people are still hyped about the game.

I am sad to see that there are people that are defending their practice and that they are blind to the fact that the game will die if it goes on as it is.

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Sorry, I have to get this off my chest: when someone tries to stand up for F2P, there is occasionally a reply like yours. Something that tries to sound like a working, responsible adult trying to teach kids the weight of the world by yelling. ā€˜Oh life is not fair’, ā€˜no money, no game’, ā€˜support the game or grind, if not get a job’.

I know there is a lot of whining on these forums and I’ve seen people who are difficult, if not impossible to please. But if you are what you are trying to make yourself out to be - that is, a mature person who has a job - then you should also be able to filter the whine from the legitimate analyses of the game. Heck, you shouldn’t be bothered by whining in the first place because you have a job to do. Why waste your precious time on it?

TL;DR: please don’t try to pass yourself off as a working person earning money by throwing insults at those who can’t afford to pay for things like games when you can’t even read the opening post. If you want people to act their age, start by example and do so yourself.

Before you say anything else like ā€˜hurr you must be F2P’: I’m a paying customer with a civic duty, too, and I’m helping a friend by buying him the Founder’s Package so that he can play as well, even though I don’t earn much. Having a job doesn’t give you the right to lord some sort of superiority over others; each person has their own circumstances. And instead of just pointing out how unfair the world is to those less fortunate than yourself, you could be helping to make it less unfair.

By doing this on the other hand, you are just making the rest of the working community look bad.

I really like Tree of Savior (the game). I really like the music, I really like the art, I even like a decent amount of the gameplay (of course there can always be improvements :slight_smile: ).

I’m not as big a fan of imc (the company) even if they were the ones that made the game.

I do the best that I can to provide data and well reasoned posts in the hope that someone higher up in imc is listening. It may fall on deaf ears, but I can’t just give up yet for something I like so much.

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A couple things to factor in

  1. There are items new players can farm that higher level players need, repeatably. (this helps even out inflation between the levels)

  2. You cant resell a token once you have bought it through the AH, so there wont be any hoarding/market playing. People selling a token are wanting to sell the token then and there, people buying a token are wanting to use the token.

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Yeah, I’ve been very active for the 3 months thing, trying to change it, a big part of community complained too, so they changed it.

I just think there’s not enough of a backlash about THIS issue. There’s just handful of us that are really seeing the problem that’s going to arise in the long run, unless they change things.

Staff is also very inactive, it’s just the worst combo ever. Greed and no one caring about what the community is saying.

Thank you for points that definitely help alleviate quite a few worries!

So hoarding is not an issue.

I’m not sure that high levels buying items from low level players necessarily completely solves silver inflation. Those higher levels presumably have more opportunities to make money and would have more purchasing power in terms of obtaining tokens I’m guessing.

I still think the biggest issue is that some ~8% of the population will be buying ~40% of the tokens with very few people buying 2,3, or 4 tokens per month.

I just look at that $90+ per month and I think it’s not sustainable… who is going to want to continue paying $90+ a month for a game for months on end? And I feel like the number of people who will do so is likely an overestimate. We’ll see I guess…

EDIT: I’ve gone ahead and updated my starting post with this new information

EDIT 2: There’s also the looming question of what proportion of people who said they would buy 1 token a month will want to transition to buying tokens with in-game money. If that number is big and supply is not enough, there will still be issues… Those switching 1 token players will also probably have more buying power compared to F2P players.

Are there many examples of currency/market manipulation in kToS?

(I’m assuming that’s where you got the first two points from?)

Its really not possible, this games market is really restrictive. Things that dont lose potential being sold, are one time AH sells and then cant be resold (materials/monster drops mainly, which is what i was referring to since some repeatable dailies need these and higher levels are prone to just buying)

Also everything’s min and max price is fixed by some weird behind the scenes calculation, so your options even on what you will sell things for is restricted.

Not to mention you must wait two days (iir) before you can collect the money you made through selling something

This is second hand ktos info, i was very interested with the way the market worked and so asked some people i know who have been playing ktos

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Is still an issue. Players that had headstart will have more buying power on the market, so they might as well hoard tokens while they are cheap to use them in dire times when inflation becomes unbearable.

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Oh, so that min-max calculation applies even to tokens?

Many thanks for this deluge of information!

Yeah, i know that for sure. I was contemplating actually ā€˜playing the token market’, as ive enjoyed that kind of minigame in the past with games that have plex-like systems, but after looking into it i learned that its impossible, number of trades a token can have is restricted like mats, and their prices are restricted with the same mysterious limits, so even buying ones with silver when their price is down and selling my own gold-bought ones when the prices are up looks not to be worth the hassle of just buying my own token

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