Tree of Savior Forum

How to enhance items to +16 with high probability

So true. A lot of people choose to be skeptical because it doesn’t work for them. If it works for me, tf I care if it doesn’t for you all I know it did for me.

Also, some people here need to stop with their very linear thinking. High enhance, high pot = cheating/exploiting immediately? Have you guys ever tried making silver and then buying them off of others? And with a bit more luck use diamond anvils and be lucky again? Some people do not think like me, no?

If you are unlucky with enhancing and others are lucky, instead of calling people cheaters or exploiters and bring that mentality to the game’s community, why not focus on making silver, wait for an opportunity and buy it from others? Why keep trying to enhance only to build that frustration up over and over?

Play hard, but play smarter. Make your money do the work for you.

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hmm:

Here’s the catch. You can probably code and try this a few times, or go to the wolfram links and refresh a few times:
In 100 rolls it is pretty reasonable to find a streak of length around 5-10. https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=random+100+numbers+from+0+to+100
In 1000 rolls it is pretty reasonable to find a streak of length 10-15
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=random+1000+numbers+from+0+to+100
However, in the same 1000 rolls you can find a high streak of length 16 with high probability, if you allow say 5 fails breaking between them

The thing is you don’t know the whole sequence because you’re not RNGesus, and so you don’t know which part of the sequence you’re in. Therefore pulling back is also a bet. By doing it this way you’re faced with a different RNG game than the enhancement itself. You’re doing an indirect bet with some things which RNGesus will bestow upon you based on a few facts I gave above:

  1. Say you want to get uber +21, which 21+ rolls are you in among the 1000001 rolls? You can probably even find a streak with 30-50 rolls there (the scaling of streak length found in any window is not linear with the number of tries)
    1a. High rolls (allowing a few lows). Worst case here is 27 success (S) + 6 fails (F), but there are also 26S+5F, 25S+4F, 24S+3F, 23S+2F, 22S+1F, or even 21S+0F
    1b. Low rolls (allowing a few highs) similar thing here except you can fail only 6 times so you ragequit as soon as you fail 6 times. Cases: 0S+6F, 1S+6F,2S+6F,…,11S+6F (assume +11 is acceptable, well it totally is acceptable)
    1c. Somehow Neutral (will get high and low almost equally)

  2. Results are either:
    2a. GIT GUD
    2b. YOU DIED
    2c. something like +11 with all pots lost and no gems…

Based on the fact that chance to find long streaks is lower, and when listing out success/fail cases in 1a/1b and possibly 1c this way, you’ll see that 6 failures in 1b is actually pretty easy!

But wait… there is something wrong right? Because once you anvil enough to think you’re in 1b or 1c, you can pull back. Yes and No. With potential system imposed, the number of tries you have is tied to your failures, so pulling back rid you of the immediate penalty of walking deeper into 1b/1c and require even more tries (since normal anvil reduces potential). this causes a second RNG game that RNGesus has to handle when you come back to the upgrade, so you’re back to 1a/1b/1c again as soon as you continue. The only thing that is changed is you’ll have a smaller window to work with this time since you’ve succeeded or failed last time. Except:

  1. Suppose you pulled back from a single failure last time when RNGsus put you in 1a. Now you only need 6 more upgrades and you care about gems so only 5 failures allowed. What now? Where are you in the 1m+ rolls? (including the ones to be rolled in the future)
    3a. get +6 more enhance levels, allowing failures in between -> way higher chance than 1a. Worst case here is 11 success (S) total and 5 fails (F) but there are also 10S+4F, 9S+3F, 8S+2F, 7S+1F, 6S+0F.
    3b. Low rolls. Just low rolls till death. -> lower chance than 1b for the similar reasons
    3c. blah

Is this still random? hmm yes totally, there’s no one controlling it.

What makes the scenario above look so skewed? Because you’re not taking the RNG result as is. The game rule imposed (potential limit and enhance level penalty when failing) affects the ability to keep playing therefore some possibilities are crossed out (you cannot engage in a 30-anvil upgrade session on the same gear with 29 fails and 1 success, for example, so while that result is counted in the 50% RNG that does not happen in practice)

So yeah you’re simply betting differently and combined with the game rule it distorts the overall observation. So pulling back works sometimes, as there’s still chance to jump into failure cases any time. It’s just that in a bigger window there are bigger streaks.

Now another question: where did the failures go? shouldn’t this be 50%?
-> well yeah since it’s random, the failures “went to someone else” a.k.a. it just happened to work for you and match to your actions XD

Hope that helps

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LUL, Lunar, you made a +15 trash xbow without any potential loss (or once it was like that). Lepolted for hacking. :smile:

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This could be just a placebo, but
I did this by changing maps every time I tried to enhance

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It’s more because it’s a 20 HP recovery and 31 INT pistol. Always get good enhancing luck on ■■■■, and fail the ones that matter…

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yeah but now he can reroll it to 70 STR 21 crit :^)

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Beat this now.

P.S. its +40 if you are unable to figure it out.

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The fact that you failed 2 times should tell you this is a placebo. You got lucky.

what the actual ■■■■ ?
Besides, i manage to enhanced it to +16
qlX-UUPYTNSfYG7lOqIItA

Better stop now and enhance it only with diamond anvil

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ulalala 20charssssssssssssss

report all cheaters …
look at the party names, he got bots alts

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Swift Step / Steady Aim / Hacka Pell / Magic Arrow / Drink Mana Pot / Use Exp Card / Use Anvil / One Step Forward / Barrage

/ez +16

a true 50% chance cannot happen with constance in a short sequence of numbers/try

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Update : ı got all events weapons and they r +6 / 0 Pot now…Luck? I dont think cuz my friends items have stats like me just 2 item pass +9… But i saw ppl in towns they all have +16/+21 full pot items…I m gonna start to abuse this system.

That is precisely what ‘luck’ means. You are unlucky, and they aren’t. Also you are disregarding the possibility that those people with +16/+21 full pot items also had other items that didn’t get that far.

There is no system to abuse here. It is all superstition.

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I agree with you about luck but something in the server make the luck be biased , like the drop of a couple of Primus gears at once.

I think there is something that the game could compensate. For example, in WOW if you don’t get the rare item on the first try it will increase the chances on the followings one until it is sure. I think that work with loot and could be adapted for enhancing system

if only we have a way to increase our succes chance to anvil by armor stat, like Looting Chance does, that would be great and imc will win many players heart

All they need to do is make the anvil system have a cap of say, 15 or 20.
Make anvil not safe at all.

But like transcending make it show the % chance.
Except the price for enhancing go up exponentially.

For 100% success:
+1 ~ 500k
+2 ~ 1.5m
+3 ~ 4.5m
+4 ~ 13.5m
+5 ~ 40.5m
+6 ~ 121,5m
+7 ~ 364.5m
+8 ~ 1.093b
+9 ~ 3.280b
+10 ~ 9.8415b

etc.

Most of these whales have multiple necrobots and AFK farms and use exploits, cheats and bots. To them 10 billion silver is probably nothing. I mean you already spend 200m just to max out an attribute, make sense to make the items require similar investment.

Oh and those costs are for 100% chance. You could just NOT use the full amount and compromise and use half for 50% chance, or use 500k only for the same amount of chance you have today and try your luck!

Then just wait a few months for IMC to just put Silver Anvils into the Cash Shop for 33 TP. Inside a gacha. As a 2% drop chance.

Problem solved!

Your numbers are crazy.

FYI: a character can only carry 200million and TeamStorage can only have 400million.

3 Likes