Normal anvil to 5 or 6, event Silver anvil from there on out is what I’ve always done.
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I guess my luck was on my side. I got my 315 mace to +10 with no fails… Not going to even bother refining no more after that simulation.
I got one to +17 with that simulation, then 10 more tries left +7-+9 with zero potential left and gazzilion silver left… Screw that
yea unless you have 20 scouts or are crazy whale like ktos just leave it rofl
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That is not about pattern its about statistics, Its less likely to fail at a chance of %68 twice than once.
Simply lets say you have %20 chance to fail something, failing once is %20 chance, failing twice is %4 chance and failing third time is lower than %1 chance. It can still happen, but statistically speaking trying until you fail with a trash weapon will yield better results.
Also here my first and only try using the fail twice (at same enchantment level) than upgrade main wep method:
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that is not true. if 100% = 1
then 20% = 0.2
0.2 * 0.2 * 0.2 = 0.008 or 0.8%
but this is a probability of independent events, it should not be treated as a cumulative chance, but rather as 3 independent chances.
Btw it is not 68% beyond +8 it is 51%
so chances of getting 3 in a row are the same as getting 3 fails in a row…
Considering that it drops 1 refine every failure it adds even more complexity.
Uhm I said lower than %1 and you proved my point 0.8<1 so I dont see where the problem is, seems true to me…
Also “statistically speaking” rolling a dice twice and getting the same number is also independent but getting the same number in both rolls is unlikely therefore lower chance.
Note: “To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the probability of each event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities. This multiplication rule is defined symbolically below. Note that multiplication is represented by AND.”
My calculations are correct.
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