This. /20characters.
Statistically you are correct. The problem is that this value is reset for everyone anytime someone gets lucky as well. If this was personal, it would work out as long as the numbers werenāt insanely large (10k to 20k), since it would be likely to hit a server reset before that value is hit.
The core problem is a players effort is nullified if anyone else gets the drop instead of him since the current system resets on an item drop. It doesnāt matter that player A killed 90% of the DPK value, if Player B walks in and gets lucky with 10 kills, Player A has to start from nothing again. Thatās the problem.
The current system still gives a disadvantage to those who do the work. The longer they farm, the greater the risk of that effort being for nothing since EVERYONE shares in that effort as far as DPK is concerned, even though only one person was working.
Sass muchā¦
You gave 2 different probability functions one of which, [quote=āSciguma, post:1, topic:360394ā]
c * exp(x * DPK) = t
c = p
[/quote]
rearranged means p = t * exp( -x * DPK)ā¦Which is much worseā¦ Because that is how exponentials work (and equations)ā¦
Thank you for taking the time to elaborate on your thought and being grown-up about a misunderstanding between two civil peopleā¦ waitā¦
Iām not saying that the current system is good. The DPKās are way too high. But this,[quote=āSciguma, post:40, topic:360394ā]
900 kills to even reach 1% drop chance and after 950 itās 2% and anything before 900 barely matters.
[/quote]
isnāt right since you still have a minute chance for each kill, that adds up , which was the point I was trying to get across. [quote=āAegrus, post:42, topic:360394ā]
The longer they farm, the greater the risk of that effort being for nothing since EVERYONE shares in that effort as far as DPK is concerned, even though only one person was working.
[/quote]
Again it may seem like that at first but until you get to letās say 2 = DPK - kill count, the people farming them have a greater chance of finding the drop (statistically anyway, whether they do ultimately depends on that individuals own luck).
The problem isnāt the statistics, they just measure the overall trend. It is the method of distribution thatās the issue. Statistically speaking, there could be 0 drops from kills, and I could just give X number of items to one person and the distribution would be nondifferent from any other system. Would players think that is fair?
The problem is the effort a player exerts does not match the reward.
Or, if you want a better real world example. Every 10th employee to clock in gets an extra 100dollars for their work for the day per hour, the rest get 0. What do you think would happen? Statistically itās still a 10 dollar an hour average, but would most find that fair?
2 Likes
They said drop rate would be better? Itās a lot worse now XD
I used to get 4 small crystaras in HG within 2hrs. now I get 1 cube in 2-3hrs
Thanks! I completely messed up.
Fixed it now. I only wrote down the formula to get the e-function values and completely forgot to at least mention the standard e-function which is the one for the actual drop rate. Sorry my mistake. Should be clear now.
Question:
Have you ever farmed DPK mats? The 0.1% chance you have now which lasts for hours is just insane. There is no spawn to support these low rates. And if you think this adds up good well duh. No.
With the system it is now according to an approximation using the bayesian distribution with 0.1% which is an lower bound (better approximation later) you have a
23% chance to get the DPK drop in the first 900 kills.
So itās even unlikely to get a DPK drop before 900 kills if you go farming 4 times. This is insane as 900 kills takes about 2-3h and then it can still be stolen. The current system is just hell.
I guess I will add this to the OP for comparison.
HG drop is not 20k DPK. This was nothing more than a fake info someone somewhere posted, triggering a crystorm.
I donāt think that the neet database which just parses all information from the game files lies:
https://tos.neet.tv/items/800015
1 Like
Ok, admit I was wrong.
Then Iām a GOD OF LUCK - got 6 purple cubes in two evenings.
Though I can make tons of such āscreenshotsā D:
Plus - most of purple HG wpns are better than practo purple wpns. Some of them are even better than orange practo wpns. How much time / money it takes to make a practo wpn? How long does it take to make a single Solomki set item?
20k DPK sounds more than fair enough.
Because you play on the most populated server thatās why the drops seem higher.
1 Like
There is hardly 10 ppl on all channels combined at any given time at 320 HG. Most of time its 3-4 ppl combined.
Alright time to drop some knowledge bombs. Did you know the cumulative chance of getting 50% chance of getting the drop is at half the dpk value. Therefore you have to kill about 5k mobs for a 25% cumulative chance.
To test this run an excel sheet, work out the chance of the mob dropping the item at x kills. Then 1-chance is the chance you will not get the drop. If you multiply all the not drop chances until a certain number, that is the chance of you not getting a drop. From that you can work out the cumulative drop chance.
You guys are looking at the chance without taking into affect every roll you get to get to that kill count. Cumulative dpk is what you need to look at, not chance drop rate at a certain amount of kills.
1 Like
I gave up on HG weapons and finished my Heart of Glory in just some days.
Added an approximation for the current system to compare and realize how horrible it is.
1 Like
Sorry but using a Binomial for this is very wrong and leads you to wrong conclusions.
You can use a Binomial when all the n are both independent and equiprobable, and our n are neither.
So, what distribution is best to represent this new drop system?
I have no idea.
However, simulating it in java was very easy Source Here.
The average drop seems to be exactly half then dpk value, which is perfectly in line with the doubling of all the old dpk values IMC did.
Hereās an example of my program result:
[quote] Drops: 1000000
DPK value: 1200
Average: 600.0
Min: 1
Max:1200[/quote]
So, why do item in the new system seem harder to drop?
Thatās because the kills you now need for a drop could be even double of what used to be before, and believe me, not getting a drop after 1k kills is very discouraging.
I think there are 2 ways to save this system:
- Reduce the dpk values: plain an simple but I'm sure IMC will never agree to it.
- Dull the edges: while of course getting a drop at ~20 kills feels great, not getting it at 1180 feels way way worse! What I mean is, if the dpk value is 600, you can only drop it between ~400 and ~800 kills, or ~300 and ~900, which will remove the chance of very lucky drops, but at least won't make you want to kill yourself.
Also breaking idea:
Bring back Magnum Opus and turn a large number of trash drops into DPK drops. EZ fix. Whatever.
2 Likes
ā ā ā ā Alchemists tho.
1 Like
I got 2 in 3 hours of farming. So there is no stealing at all on 20k DPK? Or I stole them from someone else and they didnt get any?
You gotta use your brain more often so can profit using alchemist.
Seems imc is proud of his DPK formula.
They didnt tested it. They sucks
1 Like